Royal Mail going bust is NEVER going to happen

[postslippete]

My opinion is its always been a bluff, going into administration is a perilous if not more for RM as it is for us.
Questions need to be asked, how do you go from making £400 million to losing that much? A £800 million swing, i dont know about you but i dont see that much of a difference in a year.

You might not be noticing a difference if you have had a revision during that time and have had work added. We have not had a revision since 2019 in our office. Traffic has dropped off a cliff during that time. Record profits were being made during 2020 as people were sat inside ordering tat non-stop online. Since then, people have returned to normality and in even more recent times, the cost of living is biting and people are ordering less of said tat.

Then you have the rising costs associated with running a business. Fuel costs, energy costs, all have exploded in recent years. As well as buying a fleet of expensive electric vehicles. It is clear to see just how such a swing would come about.

You make some reasonable assumptions especially regards cost of living increases that most businesses are faced with

Not many companies have the strong balance sheet that Royal Mail has though that has allowed it in previous years to buy GLS, invest billions on parcel hubs and give some very generous bonuses to the management team

[LouBarlow]

My opinion is its always been a bluff, going into administration is a perilous if not more for RM as it is for us.
Questions need to be asked, how do you go from making £400 million to losing that much? A £800 million swing, i dont know about you but i dont see that much of a difference in a year.

You might not be noticing a difference if you have had a revision during that time and have had work added. We have not had a revision since 2019 in our office. Traffic has dropped off a cliff during that time. Record profits were being made during 2020 as people were sat inside ordering tat non-stop online. Since then, people have returned to normality and in even more recent times, the cost of living is biting and people are ordering less of said tat.

Then you have the rising costs associated with running a business. Fuel costs, energy costs, all have exploded in recent years. As well as buying a fleet of expensive electric vehicles. It is clear to see just how such a swing would come about.

Lou you have said this before about it dropping off a cliff, i dont see it.

I always qualify my statement by saying ‘my office’ and accept it is more noticeable because we haven’t had a post-Covid revision yet. My round is in an affluent area and sometimes I go out of the office with ten parcels and a few oversized. Parcels in particular are dead around here. Obviously I don’t presume that other areas are the same, but I can’t be the only outlier here.

Edit - to clarify, ten parcels that won’t fit into a bundle and go through a letter box.

[FilthyBloke]

My opinion is its always been a bluff, going into administration is a perilous if not more for RM as it is for us.
Questions need to be asked, how do you go from making £400 million to losing that much? A £800 million swing, i dont know about you but i dont see that much of a difference in a year.

You might not be noticing a difference if you have had a revision during that time and have had work added. We have not had a revision since 2019 in our office. Traffic has dropped off a cliff during that time. Record profits were being made during 2020 as people were sat inside ordering tat non-stop online. Since then, people have returned to normality and in even more recent times, the cost of living is biting and people are ordering less of said tat.

Then you have the rising costs associated with running a business. Fuel costs, energy costs, all have exploded in recent years. As well as buying a fleet of expensive electric vehicles. It is clear to see just how such a swing would come about.

Lou you have said this before about it dropping off a cliff, i dont see it.

I always qualify my statement by saying ‘my office’ and accept it is more noticeable because we haven’t had a post-Covid revision yet. My round is in an affluent area and sometimes I go out of the office with ten parcels and a few oversized. Parcels in particular are dead around here. Obviously I don’t presume that other areas are the same, but I can’t be the only outlier here.

Edit - to clarify, ten parcels that won’t fit into a bundle and go through a letter box.

Same as my office. Without exaggerating I’d say only about a quarter of staff still work to their time. Most finish really early and I don’t think anyone has to extend.

[timbo1234]

It seems RM is asset rich but cash poor. If it cannot pay running costs and cannot raise money via the money markets the government will be forced to act. If it appoints an administrator his main focus will be to keep the business running. How he or she does this is anybody's guess. Certainly the biggest cost in RM is staff. Also people on here seem to think RM will be cross subsidised by IDS. It cannot be if the company is broken up. ST has already mentioned this. Most of the anger on this site is aimed at the CWU which is nothing to do with the vote. The CWU structure, personalities, tactics etc can all be changed at the next union officials election. Whatever RM do if it is a NO vote the CWU certainly will be powerless to stop it.

[scotchy1962]

You do realise that Royal Mail are legally obliged to introduce a business plan to avoid going into administration.

Royal Mail made it clear in the talks and their accounts were in the next room which costed up each part of the change and pay deal and obviously when the union reduced these changes then clearly that reduced what monies was associated to that business plan.

They also costed up that an agreement had a significant price tag to the business plan.

A no vote will mean that the business to prove to the market that it could continue to be a going concern would have to produce a business plan without the prospect of an agreement which would mean more change.

In addition there is only one company keeping the

However we had changed the companies position on all the following

1. Up to 3 hour later starts. 17:00 last letter delivery.
2. Processing and network duties moving up to 3 hours later.
3. Compulsory Sundays paid at Monday to Saturday rates.
4. Owner drivers in Royal Mail pick up the growth in parcels.
5. Annualised hours linked to scan in scan out deciding your pay.
6. Flexi bank so you don’t have a finish time you have to complete. Additionally if you finished earlier determine by your PDA/ Siso then they could determine when that hours would be worked.
7. 5 Mail Centre closures.
8. Their best and final agreement only gave a no compulsory redundancies agreement until March 2023.
9. The future of Parcelforce would have been unlimited owner drivers.
10. All legacy allowances to be removed including RRIS which for over 30 thousand members would be a pay cut ranging from £6 to £35 per week.
11. Pay was dependent on the change being introduced. The lump sum was also dependent on change being introduced.
12 individual performance standards linked to PDA OA and 100 BSi indoors. Replacement of the NCI procedure to allow individuals to be sacked for poor performance.


Yes the agreement is not perfect but anyone who believes Royal Mail are going to suddenly say there will be no change will have to think again.

Martin i am not doubting what you are saying from the unions standpoint, its the sacrifice that we the bog standard postie have to make, it has to be rewarding us for what we do and quite frankly it doesnt.
I dont believe anything that comes out of RMs many mouths, if you can lie under oath on live TV its easy to do behind closed doors.
Has any company accountants and CEOs went to prison for cooking the books? I am going to say yes so forget the financial position, i refer to the earlier lying quote.
If you are only trying to get this through because of what you percieve to be a threat to your place in the workplace or because its the best you can get then why the hard sell? I for one will not be pushed into a yes vote by a threat by these people towards my union, why would you.
If my union dont have the backbone for a fight, i do. All you have done is give them a blueprint for any coming dispute.
The change has and is already being implemented and has been since the beginning of this dispute, the union burying their head in the sand hasnt stopped it happening and i am not sure what in this agreement will aid you in the future, they will just rip it up if it suits them.
So the question is still the same, "Will They Go Bust". No idea but i cant vote for this agreement and i am quite prepared to find out.

[postslippete]

My opinion is its always been a bluff
Nobody really knows what is going on with the finances of this company, but one things for sure, i didnt get them in this position and i sure as hell dont see why i should pay the price for someone elses mistakes.

The finances of royal mail will always be a talking point

Does anyone remember when we had a billion pound pension deficit? What happened to that as they found a way round it somehow by changing the pension structure around.

But you're quite right, we didn't create any financial mess that royal mail claim that we are in. We worked our a$$e$ off during COVID and we went on strike at the unions behest. There's a long list of staff that want to take VR because they know by fair means or by foul Royal Mail want to become another gig employer

That much is abundantly obvious


*Edit we taxpayers shouldered the burden of the pension deficit

[FirstPost]

Where's Martin the mouthpiece?

[stevejm]

It's not a declining business.... unfortunately I don't have any figures off hand but there's no doubt that parcel traffic has gone through the roof. Maybe not at pandemic levels but certainly a lot higher than pre-pandemic.
Mail has reduced but they've put the prices up twice.
They've made duties bigger and in every royal mail revision I've seen, everytime they do this, they make a decent profit.
I'm not suggesting that we resist all the changes but some of the changes are designed for the company on the road to the gig economy

Part of this can be explained by the laggards coming on board. Parcel delivery to the home is still not accepted by everyone. Just like with the adoption of most new technologies their are laggards, people with a very conservative mindset who only very slowly change their habits. Most will have a smart phone now but there was a time when only the 'early adopters' had one.
There are some addresses which have a parcel/packet every day, others seemingly never order. But then those who had never ordered until now, make their first order, all goes well and they gradually order more and more online.

[postslippete]

Your response sounds about as stubborn as your attitude to changes in your workplace probably are.
I'm not spending my Sunday debating the finer points of the last 3 years.
Here and now, what's best for us. Vote yes

Ever since privatisation no other business that I know of has had as many changes as Royal Mail. In the last 3 years we have had bigger duties, PDAs, shared van working in vans, lapsing, using trolleys, scanning every bl**dy parcel that seems to be a tracked, indoor work tools, longs and shorts, siso, LATs, working Sundays. Need I go on??
And like I said I agree that we will need to change - but not to the extent that it takes us down the road towards the gig economy.

The 'finer points' like a two tier workforce is not a great thing for those who intend working for the company in the future.

[postslippete]

It seems RM is asset rich but cash poor. If it cannot pay running costs and cannot raise money via the money markets the government will be forced to act. If it appoints an administrator his main focus will be to keep the business running. How he or she does this is anybody's guess. Certainly the biggest cost in RM is staff. Also people on here seem to think RM will be cross subsidised by IDS. It cannot be if the company is broken up. ST has already mentioned this. Most of the anger on this site is aimed at the CWU which is nothing to do with the vote. The CWU structure, personalities, tactics etc can all be changed at the next union officials election. Whatever RM do if it is a NO vote the CWU certainly will be powerless to stop it.

I am angry with the union leaders because it looks like they have given up on us and have bent over backwards for Royal Mail to get a deal done, when 4 months ago they had a totally different point of view

The key to this is Royal Mail's financial position. And whether it's too big to fail is entirely dependant on how it is being managed. They can keep offices understaffed, not paying any overtime and keep failing the USO OR they can throw thousands of agency workers at it and have them half of them sat drinking coffee in the canteen or taking 10 parcels out plus a few oversized...perhaps give the managers another bonus for turning things around as well.

Royal Mail is as corrupt as anything. Just ask any union rep......

[tractorboy2]

You do realise that Royal Mail are legally obliged to introduce a business plan to avoid going into administration.

Royal Mail made it clear in the talks and their accounts were in the next room which costed up each part of the change and pay deal and obviously when the union reduced these changes then clearly that reduced what monies was associated to that business plan.

They also costed up that an agreement had a significant price tag to the business plan.

A no vote will mean that the business to prove to the market that it could continue to be a going concern would have to produce a business plan without the prospect of an agreement which would mean more change.

In addition there is only one company keeping the

However we had changed the companies position on all the following

1. Up to 3 hour later starts. 17:00 last letter delivery.
2. Processing and network duties moving up to 3 hours later.
3. Compulsory Sundays paid at Monday to Saturday rates.
4. Owner drivers in Royal Mail pick up the growth in parcels.
5. Annualised hours linked to scan in scan out deciding your pay.
6. Flexi bank so you don’t have a finish time you have to complete. Additionally if you finished earlier determine by your PDA/ Siso then they could determine when that hours would be worked.
7. 5 Mail Centre closures.
8. Their best and final agreement only gave a no compulsory redundancies agreement until March 2023.
9. The future of Parcelforce would have been unlimited owner drivers.
10. All legacy allowances to be removed including RRIS which for over 30 thousand members would be a pay cut ranging from £6 to £35 per week.
11. Pay was dependent on the change being introduced. The lump sum was also dependent on change being introduced.
12 individual performance standards linked to PDA OA and 100 BSi indoors. Replacement of the NCI procedure to allow individuals to be sacked for poor performance.


Yes the agreement is not perfect but anyone who believes Royal Mail are going to suddenly say there will be no change will have to think again.

You forgot to add the two words "For Now" at the end of those 12 points.

[Postmanham]

It's not a declining business.... unfortunately I don't have any figures off hand but there's no doubt that parcel traffic has gone through the roof. Maybe not at pandemic levels but certainly a lot higher than pre-pandemic.
Mail has reduced but they've put the prices up twice.
They've made duties bigger and in every royal mail revision I've seen, everytime they do this, they make a decent profit.
I'm not suggesting that we resist all the changes but some of the changes are designed for the company on the road to the gig economy

Part of this can be explained by the laggards coming on board. Parcel delivery to the home is still not accepted by everyone. Just like with the adoption of most new technologies their are laggards, people with a very conservative mindset who only very slowly change their habits. Most will have a smart phone now but there was a time when only the 'early adopters' had one.
There are some addresses which have a parcel/packet every day, others seemingly never order. But then those who had never ordered until now, make their first order, all goes well and they gradually order more and more online.

Some on here probably think we should still be using pink paper slips for specials.It would be madness for RM not to be using the latest technologies at their disposal. Always get moaners saying how much every new innovation is evil. When we started scan to route youd have thought it was end of the job as we know it. Now everyone just does it second nature. Not saying everything is perfect far from it but sometimes people just want to put up barriers for the sake of it.

[timbo1234]

It seems RM is asset rich but cash poor. If it cannot pay running costs and cannot raise money via the money markets the government will be forced to act. If it appoints an administrator his main focus will be to keep the business running. How he or she does this is anybody's guess. Certainly the biggest cost in RM is staff. Also people on here seem to think RM will be cross subsidised by IDS. It cannot be if the company is broken up. ST has already mentioned this. Most of the anger on this site is aimed at the CWU which is nothing to do with the vote. The CWU structure, personalities, tactics etc can all be changed at the next union officials election. Whatever RM do if it is a NO vote the CWU certainly will be powerless to stop it.

I am angry with the union leaders because it looks like they have given up on us and have bent over backwards for Royal Mail to get a deal done, when 4 months ago they had a totally different point of view

The key to this is Royal Mail's financial position. And whether it's too big to fail is entirely dependant on how it is being managed. They can keep offices understaffed, not paying any overtime and keep failing the USO OR they can throw thousands of agency workers at it and have them half of them sat drinking coffee in the canteen or taking 10 parcels out plus a few oversized...perhaps give the managers another bonus for turning things around as well.

Royal Mail is as corrupt as anything. Just ask any union rep......

I agree with your anger. But it's directed at the CWU. This vote is about the deal currently on the table. Will voting NO bring RM back to the table? Personally I think not. Will RM break the company up, request the USO is suspended and ask the government to enter administration? Nobody knows. This is probably the biggest decision that a workforce ever faced. If RM are corrupt then evidence should be presented to the police for investigation. I think you're confusing being corrupt with a total lack of morals.

[Felipo]

You do realise that Royal Mail are legally obliged to introduce a business plan to avoid going into administration.

Royal Mail made it clear in the talks and their accounts were in the next room which costed up each part of the change and pay deal and obviously when the union reduced these changes then clearly that reduced what monies was associated to that business plan.

They also costed up that an agreement had a significant price tag to the business plan.

A no vote will mean that the business to prove to the market that it could continue to be a going concern would have to produce a business plan without the prospect of an agreement which would mean more change.

In addition there is only one company keeping the

However we had changed the companies position on all the following

1. Up to 3 hour later starts. 17:00 last letter delivery.
2. Processing and network duties moving up to 3 hours later.
3. Compulsory Sundays paid at Monday to Saturday rates.
4. Owner drivers in Royal Mail pick up the growth in parcels.
5. Annualised hours linked to scan in scan out deciding your pay.
6. Flexi bank so you don’t have a finish time you have to complete. Additionally if you finished earlier determine by your PDA/ Siso then they could determine when that hours would be worked.
7. 5 Mail Centre closures.
8. Their best and final agreement only gave a no compulsory redundancies agreement until March 2023.
9. The future of Parcelforce would have been unlimited owner drivers.
10. All legacy allowances to be removed including RRIS which for over 30 thousand members would be a pay cut ranging from £6 to £35 per week.
11. Pay was dependent on the change being introduced. The lump sum was also dependent on change being introduced.
12 individual performance standards linked to PDA OA and 100 BSi indoors. Replacement of the NCI procedure to allow individuals to be sacked for poor performance.


Yes the agreement is not perfect but anyone who believes Royal Mail are going to suddenly say there will be no change will have to think again.

I suggest that Mr. Walsh should remember that the union were making all the big claims (no strings pay rise etc...), not the members!

[scotchy1962]

It seems RM is asset rich but cash poor. If it cannot pay running costs and cannot raise money via the money markets the government will be forced to act. If it appoints an administrator his main focus will be to keep the business running. How he or she does this is anybody's guess. Certainly the biggest cost in RM is staff. Also people on here seem to think RM will be cross subsidised by IDS. It cannot be if the company is broken up. ST has already mentioned this. Most of the anger on this site is aimed at the CWU which is nothing to do with the vote. The CWU structure, personalities, tactics etc can all be changed at the next union officials election. Whatever RM do if it is a NO vote the CWU certainly will be powerless to stop it.

I am angry with the union leaders because it looks like they have given up on us and have bent over backwards for Royal Mail to get a deal done, when 4 months ago they had a totally different point of view

The key to this is Royal Mail's financial position. And whether it's too big to fail is entirely dependant on how it is being managed. They can keep offices understaffed, not paying any overtime and keep failing the USO OR they can throw thousands of agency workers at it and have them half of them sat drinking coffee in the canteen or taking 10 parcels out plus a few oversized...perhaps give the managers another bonus for turning things around as well.

Royal Mail is as corrupt as anything. Just ask any union rep......

I agree with your anger. But it's directed at the CWU. This vote is about the deal currently on the table. Will voting NO bring RM back to the table? Personally I think not. Will RM break the company up, request the USO is suspended and ask the government to enter administration? Nobody knows. This is probably the biggest decision that a workforce ever faced. If RM are corrupt then evidence should be presented to the police for investigation. I think you're confusing being corrupt with a total lack of morals.

Its immaterial wether or not RM will come back to the table, thats not what we are voting for/against. We are voting on whats been proposed in the agreement and thats all.
So i will vote on that and not the hypothetical, administration/EA break up the company crud and its still a NO.
I cant see what anyone who works in delivery could find in anyway positive in this apart from you get a pay rise. It all goes downhill after that.