RM won't enter administration. RM is a part of IDS. RM's financial stats are terrible but they have been cross-subsidized by IDS and prior to IDS by GLS.
IDS has to ask the government's permission to put RM into a special type of administration. The government can refuse!!!
If the government won't let the USO be reduced to 5 days what makes you think they'll let IDS shed their responsibilities to fulfill the USO by placing RM in special administration? By all rational analysis - it won't happen.
The reason the CWU are supporting this pig of a deal is because they were fiercely attacked
1/ reps suspended
2/ no automatic deduction of union subs from payroll
3/ allegedly - vast reduction in amount of money paid to senior CWU when released from duties
4/ only consultative roll in work-place
The RM twisted the metaphorical arm of CWU behind its back until it was at the point of snapping - CWU have squealed "I submit" and R.M said there's a price to pay - promote this deal - and CWU leadership - stopped roaring like a lion and started bleating like meek lambs.
You raised some good points but ultimately it's speculation. Not a fact like your making it out to be. We don't know what's been going on behind the scenes.
Which parts are not facts? 1,2 and 4 are verified whereas 3/ is an unverified allegation.
When you consider the CWU's complete about-turn from drum beating "yes vote ballot wins the dispute" to "oh it's a crap deal but it's the best we can get" then you have to ask yourself what happened.
I have joined up the dots and thats the most logical conclusion - unless you assess that RM (IDS in reality) are in a terrible financial state. I don't believe that because I've dug around a bit and people who are far more adept at assessing the financial state of large organisation than ANY poster on here are saying that IDS financial state isn't maybe great but it sure as hell isn't terrible either - in fact like many other companies.
Your whole premise was RM won't enter administration. You don't know that for certain. You put up a rational assessment of the situation but as I said before, we don't know the details.
Let's say they did try to enter administration & failed. The threat of compulsory redundancies would still be on the cards. So you could have been right about them failing the administration, we will never know.
The picture people are painting of the union is ridiculous imo. They know they need to keep us happy to get their money. Giving us a crap deal isn't in their best interests. Seems like they exhausted the talks & tried their best. Maybe I'm wrong & they took a under the table payment as some conspiracy theorists are here suggest.
The actions of the government [so far] are shown by 2 things - first they have twice said "no" to reducing the USO from 6 to 5 days. Secondly they have not got on the case of Ofcom to react faster to obvious known breaches of USO.
What to make of that? The first part I would interpret at the Government saying "you made your bed, now you have to lie in it" ie. you knew about the USO obligations when the business was privatized. On the other hand letters not being delivered in a timely manner is not a political hot potato like the NHS back log and the continuing train strikes. The government doesn't want to create a crisis at RM by setting Ofcom on to RM and issueing multi-million pound fines. The gov't has enough crises without creating another.
So if my reading is correct then if IDS comes cap in hand to the gov't begging to put RM into special administration, likely the government will think "we don't need this costly bag of snakes" and tell IDS "Nope, we don't care what you do as long as the USO is met - more or less."
Now people here are saying that would mean mass job losses. I can't be sure but how is the USO going to be met if they get rid of 30% of the workforce? Not meeting it now.
That is why RM were even talking to CWU recently. Both parties needed an agreement of some kind.
No under the table payment necessary - just an attack on the CWU and the CWU squealed and gave in putting the leadership before members.
Getting the government to reduce the USO to five days would be merely a formality as the service has already declined to that level with no pushback from Ofcom, and a pretence as they have no intention of even providing a reliable five day service.
RM has already asked the government twice in the last year or so. Twice the government has said no.
But it`s happening by stealth, half of our walks didn`t go out on Saturday.
Getting the government to reduce the USO to five days would be merely a formality as the service has already declined to that level with no pushback from Ofcom, and a pretence as they have no intention of even providing a reliable five day service.
RM has already asked the government twice in the last year or so. Twice the government has said no.
But it`s happening by stealth, half of our walks didn`t go out on Saturday.
Oh yeah, I know, but the government will turn a blind eye to it until it becomes a political hot potato - such as officially announcing that there'll be less days of deliveries [cue newspapers talking about just another sign of Britain in decline - not a good look for government coming up to elections]
OR 20,000 postal workers to be laid off [cue newspapers criticising privatisation by Conservatives]
if all done by stealth out of the public eye the government won't react, they have enough fires to be going on with.
Getting the government to reduce the USO to five days would be merely a formality as the service has already declined to that level with no pushback from Ofcom, and a pretence as they have no intention of even providing a reliable five day service.
RM has already asked the government twice in the last year or so. Twice the government has said no.
But it`s happening by stealth, half of our walks didn`t go out on Saturday.
Oh yeah, I know, but the government will turn a blind eye to it until it becomes a political hot potato - such as officially announcing that there'll be less days of deliveries [cue newspapers talking about just another sign of Britain in decline - not a good look for government coming up to elections]
OR 20,000 postal workers to be laid off [cue newspapers criticising privatisation by Conservatives]
if all done by stealth out of the public eye the government won't react, they have enough fires to be going on with.
Most of which, it must be said, were started by them.
But it`s happening by stealth, half of our walks didn`t go out on Saturday.
And unsurprisingly, in many offices, Saturdays fail more USO than any other day. They are a VERY challenging day to cover. As a result, the removal of Saturday from the USO would have even less impact on the people receiving mail, because not much would change!!
I cannot understand how people on here actually believe that the CWU have endorsed this agreement in order to save their own skins and those of the reps. If you do believe it then nothing the CWU or anybody says will convince you otherwise. If it is a NO vote we will soon find out what the future holds. As for growing a pair don't make the mistake showing courage for pragmatism. This ballot is the most important in the history of the CWU for both RM and CWU. Given how RM have behaved I would normally vote no but this time is different. Simon Thompson was appointed to do a specific job. Most of his objectives he has achieved. What he might do after a no vote is anybody's guess.
Simon Thompson probably won't be here for much longer and there's rumours circulating that he might be leaving in August. Whilst I prefer to deal in facts, it was telling that he wasn't involved in the latest deal with the union. It's almost as if the Union were never going to get any sort of a deal if he's in charge. It also isn't good that the board including the Chairman were brought back to face a 2nd Select Committee because they weren't happy with ST answers the first time round. He will probably leave with a decent pay off like previous CEOs.
On the face of it, shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world.
I cannot understand how people on here actually believe that the CWU have endorsed this agreement in order to save their own skins and those of the reps. If you do believe it then nothing the CWU or anybody says will convince you otherwise. If it is a NO vote we will soon find out what the future holds. As for growing a pair don't make the mistake showing courage for pragmatism. This ballot is the most important in the history of the CWU for both RM and CWU. Given how RM have behaved I would normally vote no but this time is different. Simon Thompson was appointed to do a specific job. Most of his objectives he has achieved. What he might do after a no vote is anybody's guess.
Simon Thompson probably won't be here for much longer and there's rumours circulating that he might be leaving in August. Whilst I prefer to deal in facts, it was telling that he wasn't involved in the latest deal with the union. It's almost as if the Union were never going to get any sort of a deal if he's in charge. It also isn't good that the board including the Chairman were brought back to face a 2nd Select Committee because they weren't happy with ST answers the first time round. He will probably leave with a decent pay off like previous CEOs.
It's irrelevant if Simon Thompson leaves.
"Meet the new boss same as the old boss" to quote Pete Townshend.
It's irrelevant if Simon Thompson leaves.
"Meet the new boss same as the old boss" to quote Pete Townshend.
Maybe. The company will still be kicking the can towards the gig economy a bit further down the road. It's just unfortunate that this deal is quite a big step in that direction with the two tier workforce installed. For saying that this was one of the unions red lines I'm surprised they have relented to Royal Mail's vision.
On the face of it, shareholder value is the dumbest idea in the world.
It's irrelevant if Simon Thompson leaves.
"Meet the new boss same as the old boss" to quote Pete Townshend.
Maybe. The company will still be kicking the can towards the gig economy a bit further down the road. It's just unfortunate that this deal is quite a big step in that direction with the two tier workforce installed. For saying that this was one of the unions red lines I'm surprised they have relented to Royal Mail's vision.
