Corbyn

[fishtank]

It doesn't really matter what you think of the PLP, without their support Corbyn is a leader with no one to lead.

[baldrick]

there doesn't seem to be any big hitters coming forward, if there are any, they are keeping their heads below the parapet.

I don't know who you mean by 'big hitters', none of the coup plotters are particularly inspirational or visionary. I think they believe that Labour will lose the next General Election, whether it's in 2020 or earlier, and it won't matter whether Corbyn, Smith or anyone else is leader. They are positioning themselves to stand after that defeat, when whoever is leader stands down and there is another leadership election.
They have been pulling the strings behind the scenes to manipulate Eagle, then Smith to stand, knowing that neither would be likely to beat Corbyn. if Corbyn is re-elected there will probably be another leadership challenge next year, and possibly every year until they remove him. Party rules allow a leadership contest every year before Conference if 50 MPs call for one.

[baldrick]

As for the 172 versus the 40, I look at it rather like a football match or a military exercise, which I probably know more about than football in truth. Now a unit of 40 could with the right tactics defeat a unit of 170+ however if those 40 are using outdated tactics designed for 1918 against the 170+ with modern tactics more adapted to the 21st century then it's goodnight Vienna and remember The Alamo.

But you are just thinking about the plp. There are half a million party members out there too. The biggest membership ever, and they are likely to put themselves in front of the coup plotters tanks, if you want to use a military analogy. More like the defeat of the coup in Turkey than the Alamo.

And boundary changes in 2018 will mean that many of those mps will face reselection contests. With a lot of the old and new members supporting Corbyn, they might well feel that they want a candidate who supports their views.

[dvbuk55]

there doesn't seem to be any big hitters coming forward, if there are any, they are keeping their heads below the parapet.

I don't know who you mean by 'big hitters', none of the coup plotters are particularly inspirational or visionary. I think they believe that Labour will lose the next General Election, whether it's in 2020 or earlier, and it won't matter whether Corbyn, Smith or anyone else is leader. They are positioning themselves to stand after that defeat, when whoever is leader stands down and there is another leadership election.
They have been pulling the strings behind the scenes to manipulate Eagle, then Smith to stand, knowing that neither would be likely to beat Corbyn. if Corbyn is re-elected there will probably be another leadership challenge next year, and possibly every year until they remove him. Party rules allow a leadership contest every year before Conference if 50 MPs call for one.

Well anyone likely to appeal to the labour movement who appears to be electable or put another way anyone other than Corbyn.

[Tman]

Balders etc need to recognise that Corbyn's leadership is like toothache, in that by the time the symptoms of unease have manifested themselves, the damage has already been done, and no matter how much oil of cloves is applied to smooth over the problem, the end result is always the same...removal.
He doesn't even appeal to many Labour MP's, let alone the floating undecideds who put crosses on voting slips.

[dvbuk55]

As for the 172 versus the 40, I look at it rather like a football match or a military exercise, which I probably know more about than football in truth. Now a unit of 40 could with the right tactics defeat a unit of 170+ however if those 40 are using outdated tactics designed for 1918 against the 170+ with modern tactics more adapted to the 21st century then it's goodnight Vienna and remember The Alamo.

But you are just thinking about the plp. There are half a million party members out there too. The biggest membership ever, and they are likely to put themselves in front of the coup plotters tanks, if you want to use a military analogy. More like the defeat of the coup in Turkey than the Alamo.

And boundary changes in 2018 will mean that many of those mps will face reselection contests. With a lot of the old and new members supporting Corbyn, they might well feel that they want a candidate who supports their views.

It wouldn't matter. Half a million Corbyn supporters, as I have said before, aren't going to make Corbyn electable and you corbynistas keep harping on about "the boundary changes" and "deselection" what makes you think that the half million spread across the country would in any major way alter the voting pattern in an MPs selection. The problem you have Baldrick is that Corbyn does NOT represent the views of the general labour support. My advice to you is get used to a life without Corbyn

[baldrick]

what makes you think that the half million spread across the country would in any major way alter the voting pattern in an MPs selection.

If there is a selection process in a constituency, after the prospective candidates are whittled down to the last two, usually one man and one woman, the Parliamentary candidate is elected by a secret ballot of the clp's membership.
As I understand it almost every clp has at least doubled in membership since Corbyn was elected. If as it seems reasonable to assume, most of those new members joined or rejoined to support Corbyn they will be able to vote in a candidate they feel represents their views. And a lot of the more long standing members voted for Corbyn in last year's leadership election also.

[baldrick]

Well anyone likely to appeal to the labour movement who appears to be electable or put another way anyone other than Corbyn.

So who do you think that might be?
The problem is that during the New Labour era most of the new mps were selected for their bland mediocre middle management style, rather than for their support of the labour movement who they largely despise.
The older mps who went into parliament from the labour movement have gone or are approaching retirement. I can't think of anyone else I think I would support except John McDonnell, or possibly that mp for Dagenham (not Hodge), I can't remember his name at this moment.

[dvbuk55]

what makes you think that the half million spread across the country would in any major way alter the voting pattern in an MPs selection.

As I understand it almost every clp has at least doubled in membership since Corbyn was elected. If as it seems reasonable to assume, most of those new members joined or rejoined to support Corbyn they will be able to vote in a candidate they feel represents their views.

What seems more reasonable to me is that they joined to oust Corbyn not support him. If those who support Corbyn looked at the chances of forming a new government under the Corbyn manifesto they would vote for Smith.

[fishtank]

I would doubt that many of those who joined in order to foist Corbyn on the rest of us would be arsed with a local selection process.

[baldrick]

ft, the majority of the new members might not get involved in nominating or going to hustings, though a lot might, but if I remember correctly from the last time I took part in a selection process about 15 years ago, they will get an individual postal vote sent to their home, and if they could be bothered enough to join they will probably vote.

And Corbyn wasn't 'foisted' on us. He was democratically elected by an overwhelming majority, almost 60%. More votes than all the four other candidates got between them. Are there any mps or union leaders who got such a mandate?

[baldrick]

What seems more reasonable to me is that they joined to oust Corbyn not support him.

It didn't seem to be the view of the right wing on the NEC who sought to exclude new members who joined after 12 Jan from voting this time. And the High Court has overruled that this morning, though the NEC might appeal.

[fishtank]

The problem with allowing the membership to steer the party completely is that you lose the moderate voice, whether activists like to hear it or not any party that allows itself to be driven down a narrow ideological path will end up simply preaching to the converted.

Corbyn does not appeal to swing voters, he doesn't appeal to moderate Labour voters, he certainly doesn't appeal to disaffected lib dem or Tory voters but the really disturbing thing is he and his supporters don't seem to care, the ideology comes before everything, very noble I'm sure but he needs those voters to gain any power so the question really is...is he scared?

Is Corbyn so frightened of power and having all those grand plans shown up as nothing more than student politiks that he would deliberately sabotage any chance of Labour gaining the sort of power needed to make a real difference to our lives. If you've spent your whole life sniping from the back benches never dreaming that you would be called out it must be terrifying to be given the keys and told to show us what you were actually whining on about.

[baldrick]

Allowing the membership to choose the way they want the party to go doesn't mean driving it down a narrow idealogical path. The moderates and right wing will still be there and can argue and influence that course. Neither does it mean preaching to the converted.
I believe Corbyn can reach out to those who had become disillusioned with the monetarist Thatcherite position of the New Labour clique, and turned to the SNP and UKIP who offered more radical, and left policies. Or just don't bother to vote as they think the big parties are all the same.
He can even appeal to middle class and working class Tory voters who have seen their living standards decline over the last 30 years, with prospects for their children even worse.
One of the five new LP members who took the case for the right to vote in the Leadership election to the High Court was on Radio 4 this morning. He said he was a Conservative supporter for 20 years, even canvassing for them in the 2010 General Election, but he had become disillusioned with their action in Government. He said what Corbyn is saying had touched a chord with him and that is why he had joined the Labour Party.
There are millions of people out there who are disillusioned with traditional politics, especially after the 2008 banking crisis for which they are paying the price. In other European countries they are abandoning the big centrist parties for parties of the left and far right.
Here Labour can keep them if it takes up their concerns - austerity and cuts. And win the next General Election.

[dvbuk55]

In other European countries they are abandoning the big parties for parties of the left and right. Here Labour can keep them if it takes up their concerns - austerity and cuts. And win the next General Election.

Voters in other European countries won't make any difference to this country, more especially since we are leaving the EU and their political scene becomes more or less irrelevant. The UK will become a partner in the world economy and political scene. Now can you really see belt and braces Corbyn feeling comfortable on the world stage? The concerns of the general public aren't cuts and austerity primarily but immigration and economic stability not borrow, borrow, borrow, until the hinges creak. I think it has been proven time again you cannot manage the economy on borrowing ad infinitum unless you leave a note to say "there's no money left". As for winning the next election, or the one after that, or the one after that not whilst he has a hole in his ar5e.