Storms on Monday

[SF]

Well sky news is still reporting that it's going to be bad and both the weather apps I use are saying winds of 44mph between 5am and 6am when we all communte to work..

[5plusbonusball]

My doms are always wet and windy , can't wait to get out!

[arnold cheshire]

im off monday

Good for you, when you get back on Tuesday you'll find Monday's work waiting for you as well

and tuesday i will be looking to purchase "the weather tool "

[arnold cheshire]

heres the weather tool http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=weathe ... 66&bih=667" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[5plusbonusball]

The last storm of this size brought down 15million trees. So watch out for the dead wood inside then when you get out - watch out for the dead wood

[arnold cheshire]

The last storm of this size brought down 15million trees. So watch out for the dead wood inside then when you get out - watch out for the dead wood

where was it in the amazon?

[5plusbonusball]

Jill Attenborough, of the Woodland Trust, said 15 million UK trees fell in 1987 and warned more were now "exposed" because of a reduction to woodland areas for the building of roads, railways and housing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24674537" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[halfull]

i sure hope there were no specials in those bags

[cyberheater]

Good luck to the folks affected and keep safe.

I remember we were always told by our dim to go out but if you have a accident then you'll get conduct coded. Lovely.

[dvbuk55]

I'm a lumberjack and I'm OK just like my dear old Dad.

[Caniel]

A few years back we had really strong winds here and they didn't let us go out on our bikes. We were all dropped out in vans then either walked back to the office or got the bus then claimed the bus fare back.

I think we'll all be fine tomorrow just use your loaf while out, if there's tiles flying off the roofs smashing all over the place then don't deliver! Be careful with the van doors when opening them things like that really, use some common sense.

[post_bitch]

storms gonna get yaaaa

[orth]

What are you all like that believe the news and papers,The end of the day they will do anything to sell a news story or paper,but honestly it never as bad as they say.

[dvbuk55]

A few years back we had really strong winds here and they didn't let us go out on our bikes. We were all dropped out in vans then either walked back to the office or got the bus then claimed the bus fare back.

I think we'll all be fine tomorrow just use your loaf while out, if there's tiles flying off the roofs smashing all over the place then don't deliver! Be careful with the van doors when opening them things like that really, use some common sense.

Yes. I think it would be a question of balance and some may find it more difficult than others.

[orth]

copied from a sight i use regular called ukww

12Z Data has not altered the Midday Model Guidance significantly. The Hirlam remains the deepest of most early developed of the Models. The GFS the weakest. The 12Z NAE somewhere in between.

Afternoon Satellite Imagery is showing a rather disorganised mass of cloud to the west. Airmass Imagery is helpful in terms of Indicating the position of the Upper trough, the low still largely on the warm side of the Jet. The Imagery does not indicate any immediete signs of Rapid Cyclogenesis, with little in way of a =defined= cloud leaf structure / T Structure often seen in the case of RACY. The issue appeasrs to be the low is moving pretty quickly, The upper trough does not really sharpen significantly for another 12 hrs or so , meaning the low does not translate onto the cold side of the Jet / trough configuration which is where sig cyclongeneis needs to occur. large scale warm advection is evident with the rainfall coming into the SW. The upper trough driving the low is fairly flat it has to be said.

The NAE takes the low up the Bristol Channel across Central areas to exit the Wash by 06Z Monday, around 969 mbs
The Hirlam takes the low a little further North, but not much and a little deeper, and exits Lincs by 07Z around 968 mbs
The DWD GME has dropped the idea of a highly developed low and joined the other two and is good agreement with the HIRLAM And NAE.
Consider the GFS too quick and too Shallow (having a 972 mb low over Jutland at 12Z Tomorrow vs North Sea.

Hence there is now good agreement from these two models, though there is a little more "shape" to the Hirlam low which implies a stronger flow with respect to the pressure squeeze on the SW Flank of the Low. Accepted. 60-70 Knt 925 winds in the SE FLank of low, stability meaning these unlikely to translate to the surface except in Prone Locals, Needles, Beachy Head, Dover etc. 70mph + possible over Coasts, 50-60mph elsewheree

Highest risk of surface translated gusts exists across to the SW of the Low Centre, running frrom S Wales, Across the Midlands, and then esp Lincs and the Wash area. Gusts here to 65-70Knts possible.. 70mph gusts here to watch.

Elsewhere the depression is looking very intense for Denmark and the Eastern N Sea. Gusts here 80-85 Knts possible in here as the low comes onto the cold side of the by then sharper trough. Gusts to 90mph + possible over Central Denmark in the highly unstable airmass and large scale pressure rises to the SW of the Depression. Looks pretty serious here with good agreement from all the main agencies.
Paul Blight
UKww Manager - Education/Warnings
Associate Fellow Royal Meteorological Society
Southbourne, Dorset, 1M ASL.
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