UPS driver delivers packages, economic analysis

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NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - In this gloomy economy, many investors and consumers rely on a steady stream of government data, televised talking heads and politicians to help them make their financial decisions.

But in Northern New Jersey, some just wait for a big, brown truck to drive up.

Along a 35-mile route in the suburbs just west of New York City, a large swath of customers regard their package deliveryman, Vinny Plateroti, as their personal economic oracle.

Plateroti owes his special status to his job as a driver for United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N), which along with rival FedEx Corp (FDX.N) handles such a huge chunk of the United States' packages that it is a proxy for the entire economy.

"People are always coming up to me and asking me, 'What are you seeing out there?'" Plateroti said, piloting his truck through a series of stops in a strip mall parking lot on a chilly November day. "They ask me 'How is business?', because they think UPS is a barometer, and they are nervous about their own business."

Plateroti, 52, has seen enough downturns in his 23 years on the job to understand customers' anxiety, especially as the holiday season between Thanksgiving and Christmas approaches.

The next month or so accounts for almost 20 percent of all retail sales for the whole year, making it a crucial time -- especially in a town like Plateroti's territory of Paramus, New Jersey, home of four massive shopping centers and numerous smaller strip malls.

Generating about $5 billion in annual retail sales, Paramus touts itself as the shopping capital of America, said Chamber of Commerce President Fred Rohdieck.

A FRAGILE ECONOMY

The U.S. economy did grow in the most recent quarter, suggesting the country's deepest recession since the 1930s has ended -- reassuring news for Plateroti's customers.

But as recently as a month ago, UPS Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn was still calling the recovery "fragile."

UPS has forecast holiday volume only slightly higher than last year's, when it did not even disclose its peak-day numbers, so dire did the recession seem then.

So in Paramus, where the commercial vacancy rate has mushroomed to 17 percent from an average of about 6 percent before the downturn according to Rohdieck, folks continue to importune Plateroti for his take on the economy.

His daily, first-hand experience with those vacancies and the resulting layoffs saddens him, because he has come to know and like many of his customers, attending Christmas parties, funerals and wakes -- even a wedding once.

Plateroti said good-bye to numerous employees at a Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) home loan branch, where two back rooms that used to bustle with workers now hold only rows of ghostly gray cubicles.

Bank of America could not be reached to comment.

"This used to be a Washington Mutual. This used to be a (Storehouse) furniture store. This used to be a pizza place," Plateroti said in a subdued voice, pointing to a row of empty storefronts. "You read the news, but that's when it hits home, when people you know lose their jobs.

When JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) bought Washington Mutual, 300 branches were closed, said JPMorgan spokesman Tom Kelly. Storehouse was liquidated after its parent went bankrupt.

Among the retail outlets still open along Plateroti's route, foot traffic still strikes him as sluggish. And when consumers must buy they are trying to keep costs down, said Miguel Rodriguez, general manager at a LensCrafters on Plateroti's daily route.

"Rather than getting the best possible lens, they are giving up options," he said. "Rather than going with a namebrand frame they're going with something more generic."

A BELLWETHER'S BURDENS

But despite the recession, and the uncertain nature of the recovery, Plateroti has seen some signs of growth.

He pointed out a commercial building that found renters when its business school tenant moved out: a Chipotle restaurant; a T. Rowe Price Group (TROW.O) branch; and another school, this time a DeVry Inc (DV.N) university location, said Susan Sauer, one of the landlords.

Sauer said that she and her partners were lucky: "It's better than nothing. But we're sure not making the money we used to make."

Such economic activity, even if minimal, might be doing something to soothe the anxieties along Plateroti's route. People still ask him how business is doing, but they ask less than they used to, he said.

Still, UPS' bellwether reputation remains something of an occupational hazard for him. A friendly father of two who loves to chat and who recently read a story to the grade-school class taught by his daughter, he still has to make about 125 stops in nine hours on an average day.

So he'll give his customers his two minutes on the volume of goods lining the shelves of his immaculate brown truck, but then he has to start waving politely and edge toward the door and his next stop, down the road.