Decline of the blue box

[F0zziebear]

They are icons of the American mail service, but they may be about to go the way of the Pony Express.



In villages, towns and cities across America, residents are waking up to find the familiar blue mailbox at the end of the road is gone.

In the past 20 years, more than half of America's mailboxes have been taken out of service, leaving just 175,000 nationwide.

It may make commercial sense, but it has dismayed letter-writing aficionados.

"Mailboxes are like phone booths, that part of the scenery that you take for granted until one day you need one and it is no longer there," said Nancy Pope, curator at the Smithsonian National Postal Museum.

"It's a sad day when you make your morning commute and see that familiar blue box isn't there anymore."

Big decline

It's a disappointment that more and more Americans should expect.

The mailboxes are being axed as the Government-run US Postal Service (USPS) struggles with a maelstrom in the world of mail delivery.

The volume of mail posted by Americans the year is undergoing a record collapse, predicted to be down by 20 billion pieces in 2009, which would be the single biggest decline in the USPS's 234-year history.



The number of items being sent by mail is in decline
The declines are expected to accelerate, with a predicted fall from the high of 213 billion pieces of mail in 2006 to a projected 170 billion pieces in 2010.

The Postal Service is predicting losses of $7bn (£4.3bn) this fiscal year.

The disappearance of the mailbox is a sign of the times, as growing numbers of Americans ditch "snail mail" and instead use the internet to pay bills, write e-mails and send out invitations via social networking sites.

Emergency relief

It is not just regular mail that is down; junk mail, the bane of many householders, is also migrating to the web.

The Postal Service's woes have been compounded by the recession as corporate clients, in particular financial services companies, seek to reduce costs by sending more of their communications electronically.

The situation is so bad that the USPS asked Congress earlier this month for emergency relief, seeking to reduce deliveries from six days to five days a week.

In many cities the disappearance of the blue box from the kerbside has gone unnoticed but residents in some towns and villages have lobbied their local politicians, staged demonstrations and even picketed post offices.

Protests

When the residents of Otisfield in Maine received a notice warning them that their mailbox was going to be removed, they blocked the box in with a digger and a snowplough and threatened to chain themselves to it.



We letter-writers are of a generation of people that doesn't just sit back and take it

Sharon Matthews
The protesters included the town clerk, Sharon Matthews.

"People in the community depend on that little blue box," she says.

"It means something to us. The elderly rely on it, and visitors."

"You'd think they'd try to accommodate those of us who believe in communicating the old-fashioned way."

After their battle made local and national news, the town was granted a reprieve. Matthews fears it may be short-lived now that the television cameras have gone but she says the community will put up a fight.

The David and Goliath battle between the residents of Otisfield and the US government corporation struck a chord with people worldwide.

The town has been deluged with messages of support, along with requests for advice from communities facing similar battles.

"We letter-writers are of a generation of people that doesn't just sit back and take it. And we'd advise other communities to fight back too," Ms Matthews says.

The USPS says it is only removing underperforming mailboxes: those which collect fewer than 25 pieces of mail a day during a week-long test period.

USPS spokesperson Yvonne Yoerger says, "We always conduct a study of usage before we remove a mailbox. If they are near a hospital or a senior citizens' home then even if the mail volume is low, the chances are it will be saved."

'Sense of joy'

The first mailbox appeared on an American street in 1858.



Employees had to go to great length to collect mail in tough conditions
The USPS is now obliged to cover every postal address in the US, from the base of the Grand Canyon, home to the Havasupai Indians, to the far reaches of Alaska, where planes and dogsleds enable mail delivery workers to traverse the hostile environment.

The idea of privatising the Postal Service has been raised, but there are fears that investors would be unlikely to want to take on such unprofitable routes.

Several hundred post offices are being studied for possible closure and the USPS is considering introducing additional services to generate new revenue streams.

But for enthusiasts, nothing will ever replace the emotional charge of receiving a letter, a postcard or an invitation in the mail.

"It might save money but receiving a text or an email doesn't have anything like the sense of joy or surprise brought by the sound of a letter dropping on the mat," says Ms Pope at the Smithsonian National Postal Museum.

[F0zziebear]

Some of my thinking has been slated in here in recent days. However, if you read this article posted on the BBC website with various posts I have been writing since becoming a member you will see that my insight was and is indeed correct.

Much of the UK postal system has been propped up by the banking and public sector. This article highlights the dramatic downturn in bulk mail (junk mail) during the recession. You see over the last boom cycle (ten-fifteen years) there has been a massive erosion of social mail, but an increase in bulk mail, esp. from the banking and public sector, which why you as the postie did not feel the pinch in turns of volume. However, the mix of mail changed and that is whats important to bear in mind. The mix of mail is far more in tune with the economic cycle. Marketing campaigns have been turned off, which means huge contracts with rhe links of RBS, Llyods, Barclays etc. have gone. Let me give you an example the complete contract for the largest RM customer was the equivalent of the annual budget for South London, one of the largest in the country. That particular company is now propped up by the government.

Will these volumes recover? POssibly, but unlikely as the banking sector has taken a major hit. The second reason is that e-substiution is a real threat now. Not just heresay. Customers are now connected on the whole. Take for example one of the largest mobile telecoms company's. They have moved all their billing online. That means all of those monthly statements to their millions of customers has disappeared. It wn't be coming back.

Having said all of this, the government and public still demands the USO in its current format, yet as paying customers we are not prepared to pay for it upfront. The only way will be to subsidise it as with the Post Office, or modify the definition of the USO. I suspect a combination of both will be inevitable along with further job losses so that RM has a combined workforce of approx. 100,000

Whether you agree with me or not is fine. I do know for a fact that is the opinion of the top senior management, and that opinion may now be an even lower figure based on the economic crisis.

You will need to decide whether to go on all out strike in a way you have not done so far. I mean months of striking to bring this to a head, or accept the fate with your eyes open.

I expect plenty of criticsm as now is a time of high emotions whilst you are on strike. I fear a similar situation to the miners.

[baldrick]

It is true that I am no longer recieving weekly invitations from MBNA, LLoyds, Goldfish, etc
to take out credit cards and loans, I am still receiving mail from other companies such as
Saga (a sign of my age? ) inviting me to change my home insurance, buy holidays, etc.
But as the recession comes to an end, advertising mail will rise again - I don't receive much
in emails because like most people I have a spam blocker.
If the postal business is in such terminal decline, why are there so many companies getting
into it - I would have thought they would be pulling out.

[F0zziebear]

You leave a slightly ambiguous ending to your post.

If so 'why are so many companies getting into it?'

I assume you mean competitors? DHL (Deutschepost) TNT and UK Mail (FedEx) the main players are owned by foreign companies, who are also struggling. They originally setup to take advantage of de-regulation. RM tried this but spectacularly failed if you remember the Consignia debacle. These companies were invited to buy part of RM, and after due diligence realised there was no profit to be made, or little over a long period time. If three large companies with their minions of analysts cna't make the figures work then I am willing to believe them.

After the recession most of the organisations you mentioned would have moved to online advertising, and retained a smaller portion for regular mail, and more would have moved to DSA. I see you are in processing so I would have thought you'd seen more of the decline than say a postie. If this is not the case then all the evidence I am aware of is wrong. I am willing to be proven this way as I have nothing or very little to gain from being a doom monger.

[baldrick]

Yes there has been quite a substantial decline in mail at Mount Pleasant.
But this is due to the fact that we used to handle mainly Inward and Outward
Foreign Mails. The Outward mail was transferred to HWDC, and increasing
amounts of Inward Foreign is being transferred there now.
Also Inward Foreign is decreasing, particularly from the USA, due to the recession.
But the recession will come to an end at some point, as did the recessions of the
early 80's and 90's, and mail volumes will then rise.

[Tman]

After the recession most of the organisations you mentioned would have moved to online advertising, and retained a smaller portion for regular mail, and more would have moved to DSA. I see you are in processing so I would have thought you'd seen more of the decline than say a postie. If this is not the case then all the evidence I am aware of is wrong. I am willing to be proven this way as I have nothing or very little to gain from being a doom monger.

To save this thread going the same tired old way, I've added the inevitable comments in a shortened form. Feel free to pick out the one(s) applicable.

"You dunno what you're talking about" , "you got a hidden agenda FFS", "every DO postie knows you're wrong" "you must be a manger" (sic) and "I deliver 102 bags a day now, and it used to be 2 a week so you're talking daft".



Good posts Fozz, but I feel you're talking to an audience who sadly refuse to listen. "There's none so blind...." as granma used to say.

[TrueBlueTerrier]

After the recession most of the organisations you mentioned would have moved to online advertising, and retained a smaller portion for regular mail, and more would have moved to DSA. I see you are in processing so I would have thought you'd seen more of the decline than say a postie. If this is not the case then all the evidence I am aware of is wrong. I am willing to be proven this way as I have nothing or very little to gain from being a doom monger.

To save this thread going the same tired old way, I've added the inevitable comments in a shortened form. Feel free to pick out the one(s) applicable.

"You dunno what you're talking about" , "you got a hidden agenda FFS", "every DO postie knows you're wrong" "you must be a manger" (sic) and "I deliver 102 bags a day now, and it used to be 2 a week so you're talking daft".



Good posts Fozz, but I feel you're talking to an audience who sadly refuse to listen. "There's none so blind...." as granma used to say.

Don't worry Tman about this thread going off in the same "tired old way" as I see your style is the same old tired one, I just hope members ignore it and don't rise to the bait - perhaps that will keep thread polite and informative.

As you say though good post by the Fozzmeister, and I am for one glad to see him back.

[Tman]

Don't worry Tman about this thread going off in the same "tired old way" as I see your style is the same old tired one,

A little bitchy there TBT. Good to see you're keeping a look-out for any contentious posts, and long may it continue.

[TrueBlueTerrier]

Don't worry Tman about this thread going off in the same "tired old way" as I see your style is the same old tired one,

A little bitchy there TBT.

------ and you don't think yours was any different to mine.

[Tman]

Yes. Very different.
I was pointing out to Fozzie (like he needed it) that the "usual suspects" would shortly be making the expected replies to his emminently sensible post, whereas you just wanted to have a pop at me personally..

Almost a self-fulfilling prophecy, when you think about it...

[pickaname]

PUBLIC SERVICES.

Tax payers fund these things. They make life better and fairer.

Can we please have a post, Fozzie, regarding how Trident or Super Carriers more finanicially viable than a national Postal service or Health service.

Keep supporting the destruction of a public RM and you will be paying £30 to send an A4 document via next day delivery.

I find it odd that, for a service that is so unimportant or insignificant these days, there appears to be so much apathy and contention.

[F0zziebear]

I agree with pickaname. There is a major paradox in that we would scream blue murder if the mail service was privatised, yet on a daily basis hardly use it for bass volume traffic.

I'd like to respond to a couple of points:

1. Moount Pleasant has been talked about for several years. I am worried about it's medium term future on the grounds that foregin traffic is now being processed down at HWDC. I suspect there will be an inward sortation and walking sorting operation on part of the site, the rest sold off and the outward sent to other sites (E.London) and possibly Hatfield. I note a word of caution here as my knowledge of these areas is a little sketchy now as it's been sometime since my worked on this area in detail.

2. THe good news is that the prospect of a competitor delivery service offering E2E is almost gone. The chance came a few years ago and now with the competitors in serious trouble on their own doorstep will not be able to afford to setup an unprofitable operation in the UK. It would need to unprofitable at first to get the volume up and returns are just not good enough. That means that as posties you can rest slightly easier as one threat has disappeared for at least several years if not forever.

3. After the last recession the banks and public sector came to the rescue for RM volumes. I keep saying this and will continue until someone really believes me. I fear this time that the huge public sector deficit means an end to bumper public sector mailouts, and if they do return (not saying they've gone down considerably yet!) it will be mainly via DSA. I suspect that some public sector campaigns have been dumped, but reckon that it won't be until the 2010-2011 budget that marketing spend will be severly cut.

4. Marketing campaigns will become smarter. How? It is much cheaper to target ads via google and the like. You will click on an advert and the physical solution will either online, or you will ask for a physical fulfilment, application form, credit card etc. You will now notice that many websites ask if you want things via email or post. Will this option on the rise I reckon more people will divert to online. I am also in the possession of information that suggests middle-aged and silver surfers are moving away from traditional forms of comms quicker than any other sector. This was a surprise to me when I heard and read this, as is a seriously worrying sign for those in this industry. I would have though the last bastions of traditional forms of comms would have been them. If the Test Match Special Team are on Twitter (including Henry Blowfeld) then we have plenty to worry about.

5. One solution is for RM to devleop a strategy regarding its existing products and how to make them more information rich. What do I mean by this? They need to offer more from their Mailsort products. I want to know more, and more quickly what is going on with my campaign. With online advertising and pay per click I am getting a much more targetted audience and response which I can monitor in real-time and turn into sales more easily. This is not the same for Direct Mail. If it was, it would not be affectionately be known as Junk Mail. Junk Mail by its definition means unwanted. Now we get the same with our emails. Plenty of junk comes in there as well, but it comes quicker and cheaper. With Twitter one can get information that you are interested even more quickly and with adverts associated with this content one is then able to target their audience more effectively. The upside is that there should be more fulfillment coming through RM as has been shown to be the case in recent years. However, I would not be pinning my company strategy on this. RM needs to transform and buy into upstream products and services. They should be getting more into printing and data. They have one major assest, access into every home. Even the likes of google does not have this reach. RM can provide information on a national scale that no-one else can. THe plus point is that they have appointed a former Head of BT Retail as their new group strategy Director (generally gone un-noticed) and expect him to provide much of this approach. The question is whether he can influence the overall strategy of cost reduction driven by finance into a market drive on. Only time will tell.

In the meantime there is the internal question of modernisation and what that means and how it is handled. There is senior management in place who know all about transformational change and how to do it, yet for whatever reasons they struggle to implement it at an operational level with any level of success. They may argue otherwise and say they expected this, but it doesn't look good from a public persepctive and suggests a top-down bullying approach that is not consultative and 'bringing people with them' as the books explain.

I've gone into rambling mode and apologise. Anyway a few nibbles to chew on over breakfast if you like.

Be good if we got royalmailchat going on twitter. If it is on there let me know and I'll try to follow as its like an RSS feed

King F0zz of Fuzzydom

[axeman]

And just how many adds have you responded to on google ???? my guess is along with me zilch ..none....zero the best and only way is by post as we all know
i doubt these institutions will not let that go easily there for i can dispel your theorising in the myth sector. But i'm not saying that it will be scruitinised and aimed more at there niche markets for now as the present climate dictates this

[F0zziebear]

Axeman you make a very valid point on the surface and was about to endorse it here on the t'internet and then something came to mind.

None of us probably respond to Junk Mail? I say probably as I do not know. We are same people who probably do not respond to google ads. Yet according to the feedback and marketing repsonses people do respond to junk mail and ads on google. According the marketeers themselves, google ads are much cheaper than sending out large marketing campaigns via post. They could be wrong. I am only expressing an opinion based on what I've read and researched and experienced. It's a bit like TV and Radio. I personally feel more trust in something that comes via the radio than via TV, and according to stats radio is a cheap and effective advertising medium. This does not stop marketing execs including those at RM from producing expensive Television adverts. I'll let you into a small secret.

The RM Execs (some former now) would go to the large advertising agencies once their budgets had been signed off and said what can you do with this. Well unsurprisingly they come up with an ad featuring Elton John and CGI effects. Why, because it was a way of spending the budget and coining it in. The stupid Marketing Execs told the agencies how much they had to spend rather than telling them what they wanted. The same is when you go to an estate agent. The first thing they want to know is how much you've got to spend as they work on comission. Unsurprisingly they show you properties in your price range rather than finding what you need!

That was off the topic again, but felt good.

Volumes will rise, no doubt about it. But once RM has taken out jobs they will be loathed to reinstall them, as this creates fixed cost that is difficult to remove. If you want to fight for jobs, now is the time to do it. However, do not expect too much public sympathy as if the right wing press has it there are nearer 6 million unemployed at the moment.

[BELIAL]

Call me a sceptic but I do find it a little bit odd that such a long time ex employee should feel the need to devote so much time and effort into pushing a very slanted and partial view each time we head for a national ballot. No offense Fuzz but you haven't been this busy since 2007.Still nice to hear from you again.
I'd be more than a little cautious about claiming that some news article drawing largely on a USPS press release provides proof positive of the correctness of your views. Lets not forget USPS is the US equivalent of RM and is undergoing the exact same process of fighting off the private profit vultures. Seems like they've adopted an identical slash and burn and strip it to the bone policy, no doubt their public utterances are as trustworthy and accurate as RM's, no doubt they are equally as creative with their figures (wonder if they've had to suspend as many senior managers as RM on suspicion of fraud)
Interesting stuff about marketing though. There is a body of research that suggests that internet ads are as effective as chocolate fireguards. They seem to suffer from the same malaise as Tv ads , you flick the remote or click the mouse ,if anything the attention span of surfers is even lower than couch potatoes . People tend not to flick the radio,and even dumping junk mail requires some interaction. There's a phd in there