10% drop in volume?

[pinstripe]

If we are apparently losing 10% of mail each year does that mean in 10 years there will be no mail

No, I think it works out about 50% after 10 years.
10% the first year is 10%, but each 10% after that is less eg 10% of the remaining 90% = 9%, leaves 81%, 10% of that is 8.1 and so on.
The worrying point is that in 10 years when we are delivering half of what we deliver now, we will need to be on delivery even longer. Using RM's "logic" our deliveries will need to increase by 10% per year, allowing for my poor arithmetic, after all I'm only a postman, so in 2019 our deliveries will need to be over 8 hours.

[k979aaa]

If we are apparently losing 10% of mail each year does that mean in 10 years there will be no mail

No, I think it works out about 50% after 10 years.
10% the first year is 10%, but each 10% after that is less eg 10% of the remaining 90% = 9%, leaves 81%, 10% of that is 8.1 and so on.
The worrying point is that in 10 years when we are delivering half of what we deliver now, we will need to be on delivery even longer. Using RM's "logic" our deliveries will need to increase by 10% per year, allowing for my poor arithmetic, after all I'm only a postman, so in 2019 our deliveries will need to be over 8 hours.

If you have time after writeing out 200 dib card's!.

[norbert]

And by the way you are wrong the reason is they are moveing the mail too the center of their hub network so they can close nearby offices and reduce shifts and head counts and SERVICE by bringing collections forward with later and later DELIVERIES up till three of four PM!.

And if the mail hadn't dropped off considerably in the last couple of years, they wouldn't have the spare capacity to be able to do that, would they? Most MCs up to 2006/7 ran virtually flat out 24 hours a day Monday-Friday.
So no, not wrong at all.

Wrong as always it is because new machines and later deliveries and earlier collections it is a SHAM OF A SERVICE if you T-MAN wish to defend it on the basis you so say you are as floored as royalmail senior management!.

that's the TNT model , supercentres , problem is that the mail spends more time on a wagon , the rest isn't hard to work out , first class will be more the second day and second 4 - 5 days + . Cheaper and more competitive would be the RM line BUT someone has to deliver it from the spokes of the hub .

You could probably get away with that way with parcels out of vans only and it's probably how those carriers operate , problem is that RM has a very mixed mail content and more drops to cover .

[k979aaa]

And by the way you are wrong the reason is they are moveing the mail too the center of their hub network so they can close nearby offices and reduce shifts and head counts and SERVICE by bringing collections forward with later and later DELIVERIES up till three of four PM!.

And if the mail hadn't dropped off considerably in the last couple of years, they wouldn't have the spare capacity to be able to do that, would they? Most MCs up to 2006/7 ran virtually flat out 24 hours a day Monday-Friday.
So no, not wrong at all.

Wrong as always it is because new machines and later deliveries and earlier collections it is a SHAM OF A SERVICE if you T-MAN wish to defend it on the basis you so say you are as floored as royalmail senior management!.

that's the TNT model , supercentres , problem is that the mail spends more time on a wagon , the rest isn't hard to work out , first class will be more the second day and second 4 - 5 days + . Cheaper and more competitive would be the RM line BUT someone has to deliver it from the spokes of the hub .

You could probably get away with that way with parcels out of vans only and it's probably how those carriers operate , problem is that RM has a very mixed mail content and more drops to cover .

I concur with you norbert but it will not stop royalmail from trying TO DESTROY A SERVICE TOO TURN IT INTO A BUSINESS!.

[Tman]

Wrong as always it is because new machines and later deliveries and earlier collections it is a SHAM OF A SERVICE if you T-MAN wish to defend it on the basis you so say you are as floored as royalmail senior management!.

Wrong "as always"?

RM haven't had "new machines" for close on fifteen years now. Southampton MC (which is taking PO's early shift mail) hasn't changed the number of machines either, so where has all this spare capacity suddenly come from?
Any idea, or are you just going to continue in the "floored as royalmail senior management" type of nonsense?

You don't really know what you're on about, do you?

[terrace]

At one time 3 alt's of packets equaled one york of packets ,now it's 2 alt's of packets that equal one york.Conclusion- a perceived drop in traffic.It's in Royal Mail's interest to keep moving the goal posts when it comes to counting traffic.If they through their own counting of traffic see a fall they can say "well traffics falling therefore we can cut staffing."It's all about cutting and cutting.Remember when the CWU did the traffic counting?that soon changed didn't it?
Remember Royal Mail are less than transparent when it comes to traffic figures,who cross checks their figures?

[axeman]

Forgotten your previous postings again tman if you cast your mind back a little while ago you said yourself there was spare capacity in every mail centre did you not

[Tman]

Forgotten your previous postings again tman if you cast your mind back a little while ago you said yourself there was spare capacity in every mail centre did you not

Right on cue and as reliable as ever, eh Agent?

So explain to me how your post above contradicts what's been said previously?

[axeman]

So you didn't ask about where the spare capacity was coming from ? As you already addmited in previous post it's already there not contradiciting ....just reiterating statements made by you in a previous life eh !!!

[bedfordrl]

At one time 3 alt's of packets equaled one york of packets ,now it's 2 alt's of packets that equal one york.Conclusion- a perceived drop in traffic.It's in Royal Mail's interest to keep moving the goal posts when it comes to counting traffic.If they through their own counting of traffic see a fall they can say "well traffics falling therefore we can cut staffing."It's all about cutting and cutting.Remember when the CWU did the traffic counting?that soon changed didn't it?
Remember Royal Mail are less than transparent when it comes to traffic figures,who cross checks their figures?

There was a posting on here a while ago where they restated weighing as per cutting and tipping and there was a 2% increase on when they last cut and tipped,if i remember correctly the scales were promptly removed!!.
I have had a manager confirm that the numbers of letters counted have gone down from 250 per perslop to 180,so why should we trust Royal Mails figures?.
They double their profits but say that's not good enough,they get good press on Top Gear and do not build on it ,it makes you wonder if we are being captained by Kamikazes.

There has been no descent advertising from Royal Mail for ages,remember when vans carried adverts encouraging people to write letters,they just state that people text today,well of course they do , but who wants a valentine text,get well text etc apart from some airy fairy bo***ks advertising they just seem to not care to the point where granny sending grandson a card ends up with grandson paying over a quid because granny sent a card with a badge,utter utter shite!!!.

It's not a service any more ,no its just a bit of cake waiting to be broken up into little cherry picked lucrative portions by vulturous businessmen most of whom are probably politicians who will jump off of the Parliament gravytrain as it hits the buffers onto the boards of the businesses that carry away the sad remains of a one proud national treasure.

[Martin Walsh]

The claim that we have a perminant 10% traffic decline needs to be treated with a big pinch of salt. Yes every recesion means there is a traffic decline as post is often one of the first things firms scale down on when under pressure. However as in all recessions when they come to an end the amount of postings normally returns. I have done 25 years in the job and we always lose work in a reccesion only for most of it to return when we come out of it.

Now in terms of whether traffic has declined in its totality well certainly in mail centres down stream access has had a big effect on the outward part of the mail centre but there is still no impact on deliveries.

However when Royal Mail decided to introduce delivery re enginerring they did so becuase they believed that we were overstating traffic by up to 17%. This meant that traffic and revenue did not match. Lets face it we did use to over record traffic. So perhaps the traffic was never there in the first place and when it was recorded under mist in mail centres then it was just recording the traffic more accurately which did not mean we had a loss of traffic .

In any case whenever a mail centre struggles to clear they normally just send the work in bags un recorded and un measured to delivery units. IPKs ( items per kilo) have not been reviewed to take into account the increase in packets and fulfilment traffic.

We have also got to take into account what the Hooper report concludes that Royal Mail`s transparcy of traffic and revenue is unacceptable and recommended that OFF COM have more powers to look into Royal Mail`s traffic and accounts.

In addition just bacasue a shift clears easier now is not proof that traffic is in permant decline as Royal Mail have introduced one outward pass for mail centres making it easier for a mail centre to clear as they have gone from 37 outward passes to just 1.

So whilst in any reccesion we do see a drop in traffic there is no certainity that traffic will contiue to be lost forever. In any case Royal Mail have taken out over 33% costs in the last 5 years.

[Puppetmaster]

I now belive their has been a slight drop in overall mail volumes,with banks and utility companies encouraging people to go to paperless billing,if only a small percentage of customers do that thats a lot of volume,Also the amount of companies who hae gone bust.

But what we are seeing in our office at present,Mon and Tues very quiet ,rest of week well busy and yesterday (Saturday) the busiest sat urday for ages.

The drop in Mail per walk is then compensated for the substantial incease in Specials,Recordeds,and packets,

Last year with the intoduction of pegusus one of the guys had someone from Planning go out with him ,and was shocked at how many items he had to knock on doors for
the planning guy said your total should be 8 items with everything to knock on doors for?

1 day this week was a record for summer ,I had 3 specials , 12 recordeds and 10 packets !

[norbert]

I now belive their has been a slight drop in overall mail volumes,with banks and utility companies encouraging people to go to paperless billing,if only a small percentage of customers do that thats a lot of volume,Also the amount of companies who hae gone bust.

But what we are seeing in our office at present,Mon and Tues very quiet ,rest of week well busy and yesterday (Saturday) the busiest sat urday for ages.

The drop in Mail per walk is then compensated for the substantial incease in Specials,Recordeds,and packets,

Last year with the intoduction of pegusus one of the guys had someone from Planning go out with him ,and was shocked at how many items he had to knock on doors for
the planning guy said your total should be 8 items with everything to knock on doors for?

1 day this week was a record for summer ,I had 3 specials , 12 recordeds and 10 packets !

RM do not do planning - hence the cock - up's or " bedding in problems "

[krussel]

There has been no descent advertising from Royal Mail for ages,remember when vans carried adverts encouraging people to write letters,they just state that people text today,well of course they do , but who wants a valentine text,get well text etc apart from some airy fairy bo***ks advertising they just seem to not care to the point where granny sending grandson a card ends up with grandson paying over a quid because granny sent a card with a badge,utter utter shite!!!.

It's not a service any more ,no its just a bit of cake waiting to be broken up into little cherry picked lucrative portions by vulturous businessmen most of whom are probably politicians who will jump off of the Parliament gravytrain as it hits the buffers onto the boards of the businesses that carry away the sad remains of a one proud national treasure.

Great post and well said

[Tman]

axeman"]So you didn't ask about where the spare capacity was coming from ?

I didn't need to. It's there because of the reduction in mail processed.

As you already addmited in previous post it's already there not contradiciting ....just reiterating statements made by you in a previous life eh !!!

I'm sure you know what you're trying to say, but sadly I don't (and that's not unusual). Try again, reread when finished, and don't be in such a rush to answer my every post...