How Brown can stop Mandelson going postal

[TrueBlueTerrier]

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As Pete said earlier, the question of how Brown gets out of this Post Office mess is fascinating. On the one hand he has the 150 plus Labour MPs who have signed an early day motion against the plan—and you can add to that number a fair few MPs who are trying to fly below the whips’ radar—and the unions, on the other he has Peter Mandelson who has turned this into a test of his and the government’s authority.

There is, though, one obvious way out for Brown. There’s no date yet for the legislation to come before the House but most observers expect it to do so after June 4th. In other words, after the European and local elections and the expected reshuffle. If Brown moved Mandelson to the Foreign Office, the job he has always wanted and the most senior government job he could realistically do from the Lords, then his successor could accept a compromise.

One other fascinating thing to watch on the Post Office front is how clear Alan Johnson makes his position. As a former postman and head of the CWU, one would expect him to have strong opinions on the issue.

[TrueBlueTerrier]

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This is the article mentioned above

The politics of the Government's plan for Royal Mail are becoming more and more confused. The latest signs from Downing Street are that they may make one or two concessions to the backbench rebels, but that they'll stick with the main thrust of the part-privatisation package. Yet Nick Robinson points out another option that may present itself to Brown, as potential partners look warily on at the brouhaha in Westminster:
"I have been told that both political and economic factors may delay the implementation of part-privatisation. TNT, the company most likely to be a partner for the Royal Mail, has recently announced a sharp drop in its own profits, a redundancy programme and wage cuts in the Netherlands.
Ministers insist that they will proceed to a Commons vote on the issue even though they may have to rely on Conservative votes to avoid defeat. However, some in government may argue that this news could offer Gordon Brown a get-out-of-jail-free card on the trickiest policy issue he faces between now and the summer."

Given how much trouble this threatens to cause Brown, I wouldn't be too surprised if he took this escape route - and assuaged both sides of his party with some excuse like, "We remain committed to our original plans for the Royal Mail, but - due to the unprecedented, global, financial crisis which started in America - suitable partners can't be found, and we cannot proceed at present". From our Dear Leader's perspective, this would also have the benefit of pushing the issue onto the next government's plate.

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Oh, how difficult life is for a Prime Minister who's lost pretty much all his political capital. Almost every major Commons vote becomes a potential landmine, threatening to blow a premiership apart. And so it is with the Government's plans for Royal Mail. As today's Times reports:
"David Cameron holds Gordon Brown’s political life in his hands after the Prime Minister’s decision to risk a Commons defeat over the Royal Mail sell-off next month, senior government figures believe.

Downing Street insisted last night that Mr Brown was determined to press ahead, despite weekend reports that he was preparing to shelve reforms championed by Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary.

His decision sets him at odds with his long-term ally Nick Brown, the Chief Whip, who has warned the Prime Minister that he has little or no chance of getting the measure through without Tory support."

The trouble for Brown here is that all the options look bad for him. If he pushes on with the plans, then he almost certainly has to rely on Tory support, and will incur the wrath of his backbenches. But if he backs down now, then he'll not only look weak, but he'll also infuriate the modernisers, including one Peter Mandelson. As I suggested earlier, Brown could well do without a knife-wielding Mandy stalking the corridors of Number 10.

If I were the Tories I'd hold tight, and stick to more or less backing the Government over their current plans for Royal Mail. Unless the Cameroons can come up with a genuine reason to withdraw their support - and they've shown no sign of that so far - then they can maintain the moral high ground, whilst watching a internal Labour rebellion wreak some significant - if not fatal - damage on Brown. Besides, it's in the Tories' interest to have the incumbent Prime Minister remain until election time.