EMAIL AND WEB DELIVER SHARPEST BLOW TO ROYAL MAIL FORTUNES

johnnyp · Post by **johnnyp** » 01 Dec 2008, 13:03

EMAIL AND WEB DELIVER SHARPEST BLOW TO ROYAL MAIL FORTUNES

Royal Mail's letters business is facing stiffer competition from electronic alternatives such as email than it is from rival mail operators. The company has released figures revealing that profits were 500 million pounds-a-year lower due to e-substitution compared to the 100 million pound impact of competition. The analysis is understood to have been submitted by the company as part of its evidence to the independent Hooper committee, which is assessing the future of UK mail services. In October Royal Mail warned that it was facing a structural decline in the postal market that had contributed to a four percent fall in first-half volumes.

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 01 Dec 2008, 13:36

johnnyp wrote:EMAIL AND WEB DELIVER SHARPEST BLOW TO ROYAL MAIL FORTUNES

Royal Mail's letters business is facing stiffer competition from electronic alternatives such as email than it is from rival mail operators. The company has released figures revealing that profits were 500 million pounds-a-year lower due to e-substitution compared to the 100 million pound impact of competition. The analysis is understood to have been submitted by the company as part of its evidence to the independent Hooper committee, which is assessing the future of UK mail services. In October Royal Mail warned that it was facing a structural decline in the postal market that had contributed to a four percent fall in first-half volumes.

Where the f*** do they get their figures from

I'm really at a loss from words that they keep spouting the same old crap whenever it's obvious that the mail is up

F0zziebear · Post by **F0zziebear** » 01 Dec 2008, 14:44

I'll say it once and I'll say it again it is almost impossible for a postie to claim that mail volumes are going up nationally when they only see a small section of volume. There are a few ways of measuring volume:

Mail Preference Survey
Weighing mail through the operations network
From revenues recieved (which is broken down by format).

Even if volumes were going up it is mainly about revenue recieved. If people are still getting away with posting without dockets being produced then its irrelevant. If more people are defaulting on their bills than is provisioned for then this will have an impact.

The only thing I can say is that calculations about mail volumes be it by Royal Mail or competitors and the regulator are based on RM's own figures.

Quite simple equation. Most of RM's business comes from banks (via DSA). Banks are going through a rough time and are spending less on advertising cheap credit (correct me if I'm wrong). A 10% decline in their revenue/volumes will roughly a 0.5-2% impact on overall volumes. I suspect it is even more. Add to that the general decline in advertising spend, which will continue to get worse then volumes are going down nationally and revenues will also be hit, which again will apply even more pressure to RM to balance the books.

Post by **dvbuk55** » 01 Dec 2008, 14:57

F0zziebear wrote:I'll say it once and I'll say it again it is almost impossible for a postie to claim that mail volumes are going up nationally when they only see a small section of volume. There are a few ways of measuring volume:

Mail Preference Survey
Weighing mail through the operations network
From revenues recieved (which is broken down by format).

Even if volumes were going up it is mainly about revenue recieved. If people are still getting away with posting without dockets being produced then its irrelevant. If more people are defaulting on their bills than is provisioned for then this will have an impact.

The only thing I can say is that calculations about mail volumes be it by Royal Mail or competitors and the regulator are based on RM's own figures.

Quite simple equation. Most of RM's business comes from banks (via DSA). Banks are going through a rough time and are spending less on advertising cheap credit (correct me if I'm wrong). A 10% decline in their revenue/volumes will roughly a 0.5-2% impact on overall volumes. I suspect it is even more. Add to that the general decline in advertising spend, which will continue to get worse then volumes are going down nationally and revenues will also be hit, which again will apply even more pressure to RM to balance the books.

Tell me fozzie, how much mail has the man of mystery delivered this year, last year?, any year? - well then I wouldn't spout statistics if I were you - because the people who do the work know the volume of mail for DELIVERY is up, regardless of e mail, or any other contributory factor. Revenue is down? - of course it is because we are delivering mail at less than cost, packets and flats have been increasing year on year and the pouch weights and the number of pouches has increased - I no longer deliver but still involved in a delivery office - take my word for it the volume by weight is up.

F0zziebear · Post by **F0zziebear** » 01 Dec 2008, 15:17

Don't give me 'well if you haveb't delivered post this morning then you don't know what you're talking about' nonsense. I've had this for years. Even if I was delivering a round this morning you would still say well unless you've done it for 25 years man and boy you don't qualify.

For a start I am not disputing your own personal or even your local D.O experience. As someone who has worked at every level within the business I can talk from experience at a DO, area, regional, and national level.

The fact that you might be delivering heavier items does not mean volumes are going up. It means that the average weight per item might be increasing. We all know that the number of walks has decreased as a costing cutting measure and no single walk has remained the same for more than a few years, and if it has then you should have changed it under the numerous revisions and national projects.

The bulk of mail volumes comes from a tiny number of companies and via major distribution centres and DSA. It is therefore quite easy to measure the volumes. The sorting machines also show what volumes are going through so there are several ways of totalling up the volumes. The underlying volumes are decreasing with minor ups and downs depending on the economic well being of the country. More money in the pokcet means more advertising revenue means more mail.

There is no doubt that fulfillment volumes are up, but that does not equate into overall volumes going up. As stated earlier it probably means that the average weight per item is increasing.

Regardless of whether you think I am qualified or not to talk on these matters people like me influenced/made major decisions based on these figures. So if they are nonsense (along the lines of the WMDs) you need to wage a serious campaign to influence senior decision makers at RM Towers otherwise they will continue to cut operational offices, vehicles, jobs etc...

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 01 Dec 2008, 15:18

"F0zziebear"]I'll say it once and I'll say it again it is almost impossible for a postie to claim that mail volumes are going up nationally when they only see a small section of volume. There are a few ways of measuring volume

:

Fozzie, you may as well admit defeat on this. I've tried to point out the illogicality of a delivery postie disputing these facts based only on the old chestnut "but my bag's heavier than it's ever been", and failed.

Ultimately they seem to believe there's some master-plan to hoodwink them all ....to what purpose remains a mystery.

Post by **dvbuk55** » 01 Dec 2008, 15:29

Tman wrote:
"F0zziebear"]I'll say it once and I'll say it again it is almost impossible for a postie to claim that mail volumes are going up nationally when they only see a small section of volume. There are a few ways of measuring volume
:

Fozzie, you may as well admit defeat on this. I've tried to point out the illogicality of a delivery postie disputing these facts based only on the old chestnut "but my bag's heavier than it's ever been", and failed.

Ultimately they seem to believe there's some master-plan to hoodwink them all ....to what purpose remains a mystery.

It certainly isn't the forward orifice you two are speaking from, nor is it experience, mail is delivered pre sorted and doesn't go through any RM machinery and is delivered to DOs as is and as for volumes going down we had a fleet of 22 vehicles, then 24, then 26 and is currently 35 so how is it that we need more people, more vehicles and more overtime to deliver less mail - don't tell me the likes of you master decision makers and conspiracy theorist are wrong?

The problem with the likes of fozzie is he looks at statistics and makes decisions based on them and that's how Royal Mail has ended up a failing business.

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 01 Dec 2008, 15:40

OK let me see if I've got this correct...................I'm delivering more mail (and heavier mail) year on year and the rest of my DO are delivering more mail but that doesn't matter

other posties around the country are saying that they're delivering more mail (and heavier mail) year on year but that doesn't matter either

but because someone has extrapolated some figures that say mail is down we've all to believe those figures

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 01 Dec 2008, 15:57

Royal Mail
External revenue fell by £4m (0.1%) to £3,265m, despite a tariff increase and the impact of additional working days in 2008-09. Market
volumes have continued to decline, with Addressed Inland volumes falling by over 4%, compared with a decline of around 3% last year.
Volumes have fallen across all product streams and only increased for Downstream Access (DSA), diluting margins, as customers continue to
switch to competitors. DSA volumes of 2.5bn items compares with 1.8bn items last year, an increase of 38.9%. Revenues have further
reduced over the period as customers continue to optimise their use of Royal Mail's wider product range.
Operating profit in Royal Mail has increased by £41m to £46m driven by people cost savings that reflect reduced pensions costs,
management of headcount, and a move from full time to part time workers. These savings have absorbed the impact of the pay deal agreed
last year. Non-people costs have increased and include higher fuel and utility costs, together with higher depreciation and transformation
spend as Royal Mail continues to invest in modernising its operations.

Even allowing for a price increase revenue only fell by 0.1% but DSA volumes have gone from about 9% to 11% so that means that we get less for that but yet only a small decrease in revenue which would say to me that normal RM traffic is up to allow for the increase in DSA figures.

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 01 Dec 2008, 16:21

Taken from 07/08 Finacial Accounts, pay attention to the highlighted part.

Royal Mail Group is unique in reaching everyone in the UK
through its mails, Post Office and parcels businesses –
which directly employ over 181,000 people in the UK.
Every working day Royal Mail processes and delivers over
80 million items to 28 million addresses for prices that are
amongst the lowest in Europe; each week we serve over 24
million customers through our network of 13,852 Post
Office branches and each year our domestic and European
parcels businesses – General Logistics Systems and
Parcelforce Worldwide – handle some 390 million parcels.

This was taken from the interim accounts 08/09 please pay particular attention to the highlighted part.

The rate of structural volume decline in UK postal market – as in the rest of the postal world - has accelerated, leading to a 4%
fall in Royal Mail’s volumes in the first half of 2008-09. Royal Mail is now handling an average daily postbag of around 79 million
letters – some five million fewer on average each day compared to just two years ago when mail volumes peaked.

Now, unless my maths has gone really downhill with old age but 4% of 80 million is 3.2 million which would mean that this years figures should be around 77 million but the figures say 79 million

.

Any comments would be appreciated.

brothermagrew · Post by **brothermagrew** » 01 Dec 2008, 16:32

disgruntledpostie1 wrote:Taken from 07/08 Finacial Accounts, pay attention to the highlighted part.
Royal Mail Group is unique in reaching everyone in the UK
through its mails, Post Office and parcels businesses –
which directly employ over 181,000 people in the UK.
Every working day Royal Mail processes and delivers over
80 million items to 28 million addresses for prices that are
amongst the lowest in Europe; each week we serve over 24
million customers through our network of 13,852 Post
Office branches and each year our domestic and European
parcels businesses – General Logistics Systems and
Parcelforce Worldwide – handle some 390 million parcels.
This was taken from the interim accounts 08/09 please pay particular attention to the highlighted part.
The rate of structural volume decline in UK postal market – as in the rest of the postal world - has accelerated, leading to a 4%
fall in Royal Mail’s volumes in the first half of 2008-09. Royal Mail is now handling an average daily postbag of around 79 million
letters – some five million fewer on average each day compared to just two years ago when mail volumes peaked.
Now, unless my maths has gone really downhill with old age but 4% of 80 million is 3.2 million which would mean that this years figures should be around 77 million but the figures say 79 million .

Any comments would be appreciated.

Nice one brother immediate answer IT'S A TYPO ERROR.

axeman · Post by **axeman** » 01 Dec 2008, 18:22

Or the same person who works in wages made this mistake as well eh t..m,,

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 01 Dec 2008, 19:03

It certainly isn't the forward orifice you two are speaking from, nor is it experience, mail is delivered pre sorted and doesn't go through any RM machinery and is delivered to DOs as is

So when those artics start turning up at the MCs in the afternoons and evenings loaded down with Yorks of mail, and the automation runs inward mail processing through the night for the satellite DOs, they're figments of someone's imagination then?
In your system, the Yorks full of mail come from some distant MC, and your DO blokes sort it all by hand.......

even though that distant MC can't break it down to individual DOs (other than it's own)? Yeah.....OK.
I suppose you have Intra frames in your DO too then?

and as for volumes going down we had a fleet of 22 vehicles, then 24, then 26 and is currently 35 so how is it that we need more people, more vehicles and more overtime to deliver less mail - don't tell me the likes of you master decision makers and conspiracy theorist are wrong?

Hasn't Fozzie (among others) already mentioned the effects of the various amalgamations etc? You need to lay this concept of "I work harder therefore there must be nationally more mail" to rest.
Doesn't take a genius of the level of Stephen Hawking to understand it.

Post by **dvbuk55** » 01 Dec 2008, 19:18

Post by **dvbuk55** » 01 Dec 2008, 19:19

Tman wrote:
It certainly isn't the forward orifice you two are speaking from, nor is it experience, mail is delivered pre sorted and doesn't go through any RM machinery and is delivered to DOs as is
So when those artics start turning up at the MCs in the afternoons and evenings loaded down with Yorks of mail, and the automation runs inward mail processing through the night for the satellite DOs, they're figments of someone's imagination then?
In your system, the Yorks full of mail come from some distant MC, and your DO blokes sort it all by hand....... even though that distant MC can't break it down to individual DOs (other than it's own)? Yeah.....OK.
I suppose you have Intra frames in your DO too then?

and as for volumes going down we had a fleet of 22 vehicles, then 24, then 26 and is currently 35 so how is it that we need more people, more vehicles and more overtime to deliver less mail - don't tell me the likes of you master decision makers and conspiracy theorist are wrong?
Hasn't Fozzie (among others) already mentioned the effects of the various amalgamations etc? You need to lay this concept of "I work harder therefore there must be nationally more mail" to rest.
Doesn't take a genius of the level of Stephen Hawking to understand it.

Don't be one all your life - take a day off.