Who believes mail volumes are falling?

BELIAL · Post by **BELIAL** » 14 Apr 2008, 22:55

HMM data versus how much you sort, prep, how much you deliver and how long it takes. Cognitive dissonance strikes once again.if only I could reconcile RM propaganda with my daily working experience,life would be more simple

FellChair · Post by **FellChair** » 14 Apr 2008, 23:01

Since week 1 (ie last week) I've started to weigh my bags religiously and I'm keeping a record at home. I'm also timing my delivery (first letter to last), conveyancing time and pouching off time.

It seems quite obvious that us posties have the power to prove one way or another whether there is in fact a summer lull this year. Obviously it's a bit harder to prove more long term trends but I'll carry on my 'data analysis'.

I can't wait to present my DOM with the figures showing there's no or a very slight drop off during summer....I'm sure he'll just shrug his shoulders....and my section is already down to absorb a duty in a few weeks anyway, but what the hell!

BELIAL · Post by **BELIAL** » 14 Apr 2008, 23:11

Don't forget to count your packets/recordeds and specials,keep an eye on your re-di's too they can be time consuming

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 15 Apr 2008, 08:32

BELIAL wrote:HMM data versus how much you sort, prep, how much you deliver and how long it takes. Cognitive dissonance strikes once again.if only I could reconcile RM propaganda with my daily working experience,life would be more simple

HMM.
Automatically generated real-time reporting via an IBM/IT WAN to a central-point server vs you, your bike and your pouch.
An intellectual such as yourself wouldn't have missed the irony in your post, surely?

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 15 Apr 2008, 13:50

We were told today that MC figures are not to be believed only the figures that we generate (through RM approved procedures) the example given was that yesterday the figures supplied by the MC were 10000 items short of what we actually had and that whenever it was queried to the MC they said that all they provide was a rough guess (any figure within a band will do). So if we are not to believe the figures from the MC (just guess work) and we're to believe our own figures then mail IS increasing.

And please Tman can you let me know where all this information that is freely available is so that I and everyone else who doesn't believe it can check it out.

Post by **kingtubby** » 15 Apr 2008, 15:18

disgruntledpostie1 wrote: And please Tman can you let me know where all this information that is freely available is so that I and everyone else who doesn't believe it can check it out.

+1 - I too would like to see these legendary figures.

FWIW, In our MC we've been taking direct counts of mail per York based on machine throughput (MTT). Currently a York with 20 trays is assumed to have an average of 5,000 items, however we're seeing typically between 6 and 7,000 items. This doesn't prove anything as such, but I think it does hint that any correlation between RM and accurate data collection is highly debatable.

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 15 Apr 2008, 23:22

The disparity there is due to the guesstimation as used by managers for staffing levels, etc and the actual mail-piece count as done by machines. Done for very different reasons and levels of accuracy.
The letters processed figures on the machines are accurate as they are linked to AI.
If you need to see them there are teams (usually ex-posties, posties on light duties or part-timers) in every MC who deal with the figures, or if you have an RM PC presumably you could request an ADC program installation. Failing that the DOM could request them from the relevant MC. Hardly "legendary".

BELIAL · Post by **BELIAL** » 15 Apr 2008, 23:35

Tman wrote:The disparity there is due to the guesstimation as used by managers for staffing levels, etc and the actual mail-piece count as done by machines. Done for very different reasons and levels of accuracy.
The letters processed figures on the machines are accurate as they are linked to AI.
If you need to see them there are teams (usually ex-posties, posties on light duties or part-timers) in every MC who deal with the figures, or if you have an RM PC presumably you could request an ADC program installation. Failing that the DOM could request them from the relevant MC. Hardly "legendary".

Sounds like WTL bullshit again

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 16 Apr 2008, 00:16

Sounds like WTL bullshit again

Seems like you need a break. Those pithy one-liners of yours are merely abuse now.

Post by **kingtubby** » 16 Apr 2008, 13:29

Tman wrote:The disparity there is due to the guesstimation as used by managers for staffing levels, etc and the actual mail-piece count as done by machines. Done for very different reasons and levels of accuracy....

Ok, so I intend to ask my line manager for some comparative figures that show mail volumes through our MC over the last five years, but can you point us to some published RM data that shows falling volumes on a national scale over a similar period. It would need to be over at least three years to have any efficacy.
On another note, if you're correct that mail volumes are falling, then haven't staffing levels also fallen over the same period?

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 16 Apr 2008, 15:07

Tman wrote:The disparity there is due to the guesstimation as used by managers for staffing levels, etc and the actual mail-piece count as done by machines. Done for very different reasons and levels of accuracy.
The letters processed figures on the machines are accurate as they are linked to AI.
If you need to see them there are teams (usually ex-posties, posties on light duties or part-timers) in every MC who deal with the figures, or if you have an RM PC presumably you could request an ADC program installation. Failing that the DOM could request them from the relevant MC. Hardly "legendary".

The DOM in my office has stated that the figures he gets from the MC are wrong so why would he want the wrong figures again??

And from your explanation I gather that non-machinable mail is not counted in your figures??

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 16 Apr 2008, 22:14

The DOM in my office has stated that the figures he gets from the MC are wrong so why would he want the wrong figures again??

Can't answer for your DOM, nor can I explain why he thinks they're wrong. Mail is delivered to DOs in Yorks and Perstops, the contents of which can only be a good estimate, but at that point it's at the end of it's journey.
That same mail has been processed through RM machinery and counted to the item, and this is where RM takes it's figures for nationwide traffic from.

And from your explanation I gather that non-machinable mail is not counted in your figures?

Non-machinable is only a small percentage of the total, but you're correct in that if it hasn't been through a machine of any type then it can only be counted by Perstop. Do you have the "gunning-in" hand held bar-coders to count the Perstops in by mail type/poster?

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 16 Apr 2008, 22:29

Tman wrote:
The DOM in my office has stated that the figures he gets from the MC are wrong so why would he want the wrong figures again??
Can't answer for your DOM, nor can I explain why he thinks they're wrong. Mail is delivered to DOs in Yorks and Perstops, the contents of which can only be a good estimate, but at that point it's at the end of it's journey.
That same mail has been processed through RM machinery and counted to the item, and this is where RM takes it's figures for nationwide traffic from.

And from your explanation I gather that non-machinable mail is not counted in your figures?
Non-machinable is only a small percentage of the total, but you're correct in that if it hasn't been through a machine of any type then it can only be counted by Perstop. Do you have the "gunning-in" hand held bar-coders to count the Perstops in by mail type/poster?

First, whenever the discrepancy was raised with the MC they were the one who told them that their figures were guesses.

Secondly, the 7 or 8 yorks of mailsort that we get everyday are all mixed flats/letters/packets so how can these be counted?

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 16 Apr 2008, 22:36

Another thing - If as you're saying the weighing in/tray count is now wrong but these figures have gone up then it only stands to reason that the original figures were wrong in the first place and that now that the machines are counting every letter (we don't see any missorts anymore because the machines are so accurate) then we are delivering more.

Tman · Post by **Tman** » 16 Apr 2008, 22:56

I'm not saying what count is wrong or accurate, but the non-machineable mail is in Perstops and the staff who barcode those know roughly how many fit in them and that's where the guesstimation comes in, presumably.
Not my concern or area really, but as said, the non-machineable is a very small percentage compared to the lorry-loads of POP and C5 which arrive daily for processing.
I should think the higher number of non-machineable but heavier shrink-wraps, mags etc being despatched now makes mail traffic seem much higher than it is though.

ROYALMAILCHAT

Who believes mail volumes are falling?

Mail Volumes Falling?