Shares are in IDS as the group, not just RM. I believe if RM was allowed to go into administration, this would be down to the courts deciding RM is a separate entity within the IDS group and cross funding isn't possible. Then a portion of your shares would be junk. Although you could get a pay-out on them, as Railtrack to Network Rail fiasco showed. However, without the RM liability, IDS remaining shares may rebound to cover the lost shares.If the court decides, RM isn't a separate entity within the IDS group and cross funding is possible, then the shares would possibly drop but can rebound depending on how the rest of the IDS performs
This! You have a better understanding than most. Not only rebound - go through the roof. We already know that GLS is hugely profitable and likely Parcelforce would be re-organised and re-branded as GLS
Surely the shares are now held in IDS not RM, given that DK just spent £m's buying another 1% of the (IDS) company it's unlikely he feels they'll be worthless any time soon.
It's looking like the shares will plod along at around £2 for now.
I'd say they are going to move a lot from where they are. If the RM part of business is put into admin then the IDS shares will initially fall but then rise steadily if it becomes clear that IDS has broken away and is now just a parcel company.
If there is an agreement with the CWU the shares will initially rise on relief and then sink back when it becomes clear that the fundamental problems still exist.
Surely the shares are now held in IDS not RM, given that DK just spent £m's buying another 1% of the (IDS) company it's unlikely he feels they'll be worthless any time soon.
It's looking like the shares will plod along at around £2 for now.
I'd say they are going to move a lot from where they are. If the RM part of business is put into admin then the IDS shares will initially fall but then rise steadily if it becomes clear that IDS has broken away and is now just a parcel company.
If there is an agreement with the CWU the shares will initially rise on relief and then sink back when it becomes clear that the fundamental problems still exist.
If RM is allowed to enter administration it would shine the brightest spotlight into every dark corner of how the business was run, is being run and where it's heading. The whole issue of the ST bonus and how it was related to dividends for shareholders would be severely scrutinised. I think ST will also be called to appear in front of the covid enquiry for his part in test and trace. The risk RM take by entering administration is huge. Will they gamble with every detail of the company being exposed to public scrutiny?
Surely the shares are now held in IDS not RM, given that DK just spent £m's buying another 1% of the (IDS) company it's unlikely he feels they'll be worthless any time soon.
It's looking like the shares will plod along at around £2 for now.
I'd say they are going to move a lot from where they are. If the RM part of business is put into admin then the IDS shares will initially fall but then rise steadily if it becomes clear that IDS has broken away and is now just a parcel company.
If there is an agreement with the CWU the shares will initially rise on relief and then sink back when it becomes clear that the fundamental problems still exist.
If RM is allowed to enter administration it would shine the brightest spotlight into every dark corner of how the business was run, is being run and where it's heading. The whole issue of the ST bonus and how it was related to dividends for shareholders would be severely scrutinised. I think ST will also be called to appear in front of the covid enquiry for his part in test and trace. The risk RM take by entering administration is huge. Will they gamble with every detail of the company being exposed to public scrutiny?
whether they really want to put the letters business into administration is a mute point - I'm saying what I think would happen to the share price if they do.
With VESA now holding over 25% of the shares, yours may all be bought from you soon no matter what happens. If they get to 30% that are obliged to make a takeover bid...
With VESA now holding over 25% of the shares, yours may all be bought from you soon no matter what happens. If they get to 30% that are obliged to make a takeover bid...
Would they be obliged to make a bid for the whole of IDS/RM Group or could they just go for GLS and PF only?
Surely the shares are now held in IDS not RM, given that DK just spent £m's buying another 1% of the (IDS) company it's unlikely he feels they'll be worthless any time soon.
It's looking like the shares will plod along at around £2 for now.
I would agree. If Gls was separate or taken out of ids then ids would tank cause RM is performing poorly. I remember reading Gls profits are keeping ids in a neutral state.
We'll soon find out how dire RM financial situation is in April's financial report.
Last edited by Ppat98 on 30 Mar 2023, 13:13, edited 1 time in total.
If RM is allowed to enter administration it would shine the brightest spotlight into every dark corner of how the business was run, is being run and where it's heading. The whole issue of the ST bonus and how it was related to dividends for shareholders would be severely scrutinised. I think ST will also be called to appear in front of the covid enquiry for his part in test and trace. The risk RM take by entering administration is huge. Will they gamble with every detail of the company being exposed to public scrutiny?
Every business on the stock market has the brightest light shining on them, even without them going into administration. That's why companies are regulated & have to report their financials on a quarterly basis.
It’s all been planned for a while. Kretinsky will make an offer and Royal a mail will be under his control. The government have already given him the green light.
The only thing that we are all unsure of is how long until he breaks the company up, taking the profitable parts, all the prime real estate and Royal Mail letters and small parcels work either be sold off cheap or taken over by the government.
It will be a sad day, but inevitable. The union will get a deal, but trust me this will be a short term deal until this all comes into effect.
The future is bright for him, but dark for us posties.
What they're talking about right now is a "postal admintration" - under the Postal Services Act 2011. This is different from the other types of adminstration and because nothing can be clear, the law talks about an adminstrator taking over "the company" running the postal services covered in the act.
Which calls for all sorts of fun. The USO also covers 1st and 2nd class untracked parcels. Do they get weeded out in adminstration?
Not sure if Vesa taking over would be the apocalyptic scenario we all seem to think... W
it looks like when they took a 29% share in PostNL (Netherlands RM equivalent) they put a stop to the carving up and selling off of various parts of it that had been going on prior
If RM is allowed to enter administration it would shine the brightest spotlight into every dark corner of how the business was run, is being run and where it's heading. The whole issue of the ST bonus and how it was related to dividends for shareholders would be severely scrutinised. I think ST will also be called to appear in front of the covid enquiry for his part in test and trace. The risk RM take by entering administration is huge. Will they gamble with every detail of the company being exposed to public scrutiny?
Every business on the stock market has the brightest light shining on them, even without them going into administration. That's why companies are regulated & have to report their financials on a quarterly basis.
Very naive view. The auditors PWC are currently under investigation for signing off accounts of companies that within months went into administration or had major financial irregularities. One of them was the major defence contractor Babcock. The administrator who will be overseen by the BEIS Parliamentary Committee will be looking at every detail of the operation. That Committee will be well known to three of the major players from RM.
Very naive view. The auditors PWC are currently under investigation for signing off accounts of companies that within months went into administration or had major financial irregularities. One of them was the major defence contractor Babcock. The administrator who will be overseen by the BEIS Parliamentary Committee will be looking at every detail of the operation. That Committee will be well known to three of the major players from RM.
So you think Royal mail have been cooking the books? I ain't their biggest fan either but very doubtful a company as big as RM are doing that. Even though st & co are self serving in terms of profits, that's very different to fraud. Cherry picking examples you gave are rare.
Think you've been watching a few too many episodes of breaking bad son.