Share Price in relation to Dispute

[k979aaa]

Ps, how have you lost hundreds on a share that had dropped sooo much this yr?


*full disclosure: I have skin in the game, as I've been shorting the stock and have so far lost hundreds

Well, being the financial genius I am, I only started shorting once the strikes started. I was convinced they'd plummet (the stock prices). Add in a bit of leverage, and here we are

Gambling in a market you don’t understand is a recipe for burnt fingers.
Somebody outside of the situation, if asked, ‘what do you think would happen today to the share price of a company, if they said there’s no money for a dividend, we’re at war with our own employees, and those workers announced new strike dates after the market closed yesterday?’
I guarantee their answer would be ‘bloody hell, they’d go down, maybe significantly’
The reality?
0CF10253-5CE7-4C54-AEE0-3FBE01B46F5D.jpeg

Because they are gamblers that is how they make a profit it is the same as people going into william hill they need the rush and will win someday!

[Ppat98]

Shorting is very risky as your potential lose in unknown if it goes against you & can wipe out your portfolio.

It's better to buy puts as the potential lose is limited to what you pay for each put contract.

Rm trades options so it's worth looking into.

Would need to learn about options trading before going into this but it's easily learned on YouTube.

Puts = short
Calls = long

[dudius]

Shorting is very risky as your potential lose in unknown if it goes against you & can wipe out your portfolio.

It's better to buy puts as the potential lose is limited to what you pay for each put contract.

Rm trades options so it's worth looking into.

Would need to learn about options trading before going into this but it's easily learned on YouTube.

Puts = short
Calls = long

Do you know of any platforms which allow options trading? I've watched several tutorials, but the apps I have used (eToro and plus500) don't seem to allow for it?

[Ppat98]

I use interactive brokers. Been using them since 2019. If you want to have a margin account you need to make a 2k minimum deposit but if you plan on using a cash only account there is no minimum deposit required.

Downside of the cash account is if you close a trade the funds will take about 2 or 3 day's to clear before making a new trade whereas the margin account let's you go in & out of trades instantly.

Charles Schwab also does options but I think there deposit requirements were 20k plus last time I checked.

The info could have changed though so worth double checking

[Ppat98]

Options can be risky though so best to probably paper trade with them before putting real money on the line & if you do end up buying options I recommend having at least a 3 month expiration contract as it gives you more time to be right. I usually buy yearly contracts myself just to be safe.
Every day that goes past wipes value off your contract value.

I personally wouldn't risk buying puts or shorting RM at the moment as they are already at really low levels. Would rather go long if I was to choose. If RM goes back down to £1.50 levels because of strike action in December I may have to buy some long term calls.

[k979aaa]

Nice to see the workers getting knee deep in capitalism and tell us how we should resolve the dispute by caving in!

[dudius]

I use interactive brokers. Been using them since 2019. If you want to have a margin account you need to make a 2k minimum deposit but if you plan on using a cash only account there is no minimum deposit required.

Downside of the cash account is if you close a trade the funds will take about 2 or 3 day's to clear before making a new trade whereas the margin account let's you go in & out of trades instantly.

Charles Schwab also does options but I think there deposit requirements were 20k plus last time I checked.

The info could have changed though so worth double checking

Thanks. I'll check them out.
Think I may stay away from leverage for a while and just play for a bit.

[dudius]

Nice to see the workers getting knee deep in capitalism and tell us how we should resolve the dispute by caving in!

If you're stuck inside a prison, the only way you can escape is by using the tools around you.

The key is not to join the wardens once you are free.

[rambo1]

Nice to see the workers getting knee deep in capitalism and tell us how we should resolve the dispute by caving in!

If you're stuck inside a prison, the only way you can escape is by using the tools around you.

The key is not too join the wardens once you are free.

Nice.
You might have known we'd get slated for trying to use our intelligence to try and make some money for our future instead of just grinding along as an overtime junkie postie.

[dudius]

Nice.
You might have known we'd get slated for trying to use our intelligence to try and make some money for our future instead of just grinding along as an overtime junkie postie.

Indeed.
The question is though, as it has been from the beginning of this post, why is the share price is doing so well?
Amazon, for example, have posted massive profits yet again. However, because those profits are a bit less than projected, their share price tanked. I even bought one (a single share, that is). Facebook ... Still massively profitable ... Plummeting.
Why, then, would a company in apparent financial strife to the tune of losing nearly a billion a year and in a fight to the death with it's primary union, be soaring so high?
There's something going on. And I, as someone who's bet on the wrong direction (although logically), would like to know what that something is.

[rambo1]

Nice.
You might have known we'd get slated for trying to use our intelligence to try and make some money for our future instead of just grinding along as an overtime junkie postie.

Indeed.
The question is though, as it has been from the beginning of this post, why is the share price is doing so well?
Amazon, for example, have posted massive profits yet again. However, because those profits are a bit less than projected, their share price tanked. I even bought one (a single share, that is). Facebook ... Still massively profitable ... Plummeting.
Why, then, would a company in apparent financial strife to the tune of losing nearly a billion a year and in a fight to the death with it's primary union, be soaring so high?
There's something going on. And I, as someone who's bet on the wrong direction (although logically), would like to know what that something is.

As I understand it, under takeover rules, If Kretinski wanted to make a takeover bid if he buys up enough shares to get over the 30%, he would have to bid around £4 a share (60% premium on todays SP). His plan many think ,would then be to make a go of the very profitable GLS and discard Royal Mail letters, thus making a very profitable business. I agree , logically that the SP should be going down and the kneejerk mkt reaction on open Thursday as you probably know , was to mark us down 6% from the gun, to then steadily recover. Think Amazon is a victim of it's own success and ANY sign of weakness or that they may be struggling and the get hit bad. Plus they are probably nearer to their high than Royal Mail are so more to lose there and more to gain here. They are also cutting jobs which is seen as a bad thing for them but conversely a good thing for us! go figure. Thats a thing with the stockmarket, if we knew exactly how it worked we'd all be millionaires. Also we are in a very very volatile environment now. Good luck with all your investments.

[Gasman11]

Ps, how have you lost hundreds on a share that had dropped sooo much this yr?


*full disclosure: I have skin in the game, as I've been shorting the stock and have so far lost hundreds

Well, being the financial genius I am, I only started shorting once the strikes started. I was convinced they'd plummet (the stock prices). Add in a bit of leverage, and here we are

D'oh. I see govt has rejected proposed cut to the USO so there may be hope for you to get your money back. How long you got before they call it in?

That was in May when Kwarteng was Business Secretary. RM have asked again and its our chairman, Keith Williams buddy Grant Shapps who is mulling over the latest request, the same fella who failed to see any issue with VESA taking full control of the company. Whole thing stinks, Williams and Shapps go back a few years:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... n-for-rail

[dudius]

As I understand it, under takeover rules, If Kretinski wanted to make a takeover bid if he buys up enough shares to get over the 30%, he would have to bid around £4 a share (60% premium on todays SP). His plan many think ,would then be to make a go of the very profitable GLS and discard Royal Mail letters, thus making a very profitable business. I agree , logically that the SP should be going down and the kneejerk mkt reaction on open Thursday as you probably know , was to mark us down 6% from the gun, to then steadily recover. Think Amazon is a victim of it's own success and ANY sign of weakness or that they may be struggling and the get hit bad. Plus they are probably nearer to their high than Royal Mail are so more to lose there and more to gain here. They are also cutting jobs which is seen as a bad thing for them but conversely a good thing for us! go figure. Thats a thing with the stockmarket, if we knew exactly how it worked we'd all be millionaires. Also we are in a very very volatile environment now. Good luck with all your investments.

Good analysis. I wasn't really considering the possible takeover as an imminent threat. Perhaps the market is right.

[dudius]

Screenshot_20221120-054034_eToro.jpg

My current position.
Let's see what Monday brings.

[blacov]

You have stepped into a dangerous game.

In my opinion Royal Mail (IDS) is a long at the moment, not because they recently recovered over 25% from their lowest this year. It is because markets can see the long game.
We are entering recession but online shopping is still higher than pre pandemic and the trend is likely remain that way. The dispute between cwu and royal mail board is seen in favour of the business as they proceed with the changes anyway. This gives confidence it will eventually curb losses or will again be making money, then there's gls the jewel in the crown, still profitable and effectively bailing out the uk letter division.

I can see you are investing low sums. If you have expensive debts at the moment or paying mortgage I believe your best bet would be using surplus cash into paying your debts first or overpaying mortgage. The market is bear at the moment, I can't see many retail investors making a killing playing around with £1-2k