WHAT WILL BALLOT RESULT BE?

lovejoy · Post by **lovejoy** » 25 Nov 2007, 11:55

Ok then no insults to each other, no reasons needed to vote either way lets have a simple prediction of the result and maybe a line on why you think it will be that way!

I think it will be a YES vote and it will be by 58-60%.

My main reason for this is by now senior figures in both the union and Royal Mail will know where the ballot is going.

IF it was looking like a NO vote then ALA way forward CWU HQ would have been really pushing the branches recommending a YES vote to encourage members to vote!

This has not happened (to my knowledge) and at this late stage cannot happen so I think HQ must either know or be very confident of a yes.

ANY OTHER PREDICTIONS / REASONING?

Glenno · Post by **Glenno** » 25 Nov 2007, 12:41

Well here we go again I think You think Scenario I'll Predict a Big No vote 53% - 47%

and i'll back that up with the message Branches have had their say & their reccomendations now is the time for the individual to speak SAY IT LOUD & SAY IT PROUD NO NO NO !!!!!!!!!!!

axeman · Post by **axeman** » 25 Nov 2007, 13:40

the only answer if it goes to a 'yes' vote is it's been rigged virtualy all i speak to and have heard from have gone 'no' lets just hope that it is indeed a 'no' vote as the results of a 'yes' (lets be shafted) vote will be a retrograde step for all concerned

DGP1 · Post by **DGP1** » 25 Nov 2007, 13:59

The yes vote will win but only because I believe the ballot will be rigged (I could be wrong but I don't think so)

mailsort6 · Post by **mailsort6** » 25 Nov 2007, 14:27

I think it's going to be a No win of 60% and 40% yes. The reason being engineers and LAs will vote yes because they already do flexible working on reasonable terms and they are most likely looking at the money and not the terms and conditions. Posties on the other hand will be treated unreasonable when it comes to flexibility, this is the reason why mail centres, Delivery Offices, etc will probably vote No. Posties are very unhappy at the moment regarding the way the are devalued and the way they are treated within the workplace, there is no way I can see posties voting yes unless they are working with a reasonable office that treats them with respect.

k979aaa · Post by **k979aaa** » 25 Nov 2007, 14:50

NO 80% YES 18% Out of turnout of 75% royalmail will use the 18%+25% to come up with their own phony result!

kill Joy · Post by **kill Joy** » 25 Nov 2007, 17:06

I've always predicted a Yes and I reckon it'll be 62% in favour with 38% against and a 77% turn out. also predict most if not all Branches that recomend No will return a Yes. Does anyone know if we'll get that breakdown.

Danger of all this is if I or anyone else is right then someone is going to cry foul which it looks like some faint hearts are already. Just cos some people on here have spoken to a few dozen or a few hundred, well wot about the silent majority.

Also, I predict that when the 'Yes' votes in we'll have the usual - The union is finished, it's the leaderships fault - everything but in reality the memers believed the deal aint as bad as some have made out.

Wotever the result, wot ever our differences we simply must pull together for the battles ahead. One thing is clear the war aint over and we need to be united going forward. For those good comrades threatening to jump I hope they stay and fight. If not then clearly they aint got the stomach for the long hall.

Spedley · Post by **Spedley** » 25 Nov 2007, 18:04

I go with Kill Joy's figures, they seem about right although I do think the turn out will be a little lower due to the number of spoiled papers.

edinburghsteve · Post by **edinburghsteve** » 25 Nov 2007, 18:05

I hope its a NO vote but it will be a close YES vote. 52% Yes 48% No. Only 50% turnout. Everyone isn't happy with RM and don't care, probably because their going to leave. These people won't vote at all. Who blames them. The union sold us down the river with this deal and Hayes and Co should all go.

Close deal, more unofficial strikes will happen all over the country after the xmas period.

Post by **baldrick** » 25 Nov 2007, 18:17

I think it's going to be close either way, about 45/55%, on a 60-70% turnout.
And I also think it's going to cause a lot of unofficial walkouts next year.

borderscot · Post by **borderscot** » 25 Nov 2007, 18:49

55% to 45% NO vote

but RM and CWU HQ will use the non-voters to claim a yes victory

Post by **arsenalbob** » 25 Nov 2007, 19:08

i'm going for no to be narrowly in front on tuesday and then rm and cwu will announce the ballot has been extended by a week to get more papers in. a bit like fergie's stopwatch when united need a goal.

Post by **barkersboy** » 25 Nov 2007, 19:26

've always predicted a Yes and I reckon it'll be 62% in favour with 38% against and a 77% turn out. also predict most if not all Branches that recomend No will return a Yes. Does anyone know if we'll get that breakdown.

Danger of all this is if I or anyone else is right then someone is going to cry foul which it looks like some faint hearts are already. Just cos some people on here have spoken to a few dozen or a few hundred, well wot about the silent majority.

Also, I predict that when the 'Yes' votes in we'll have the usual - The union is finished, it's the leaderships fault - everything but in reality the memers believed the deal aint as bad as some have made out.

Wotever the result, wot ever our differences we simply must pull together for the battles ahead. One thing is clear the war aint over and we need to be united going forward. For those good comrades threatening to jump I hope they stay and fight. If not then clearly they aint got the stomach for the long hall.

YES vote and the CWU is defunct. Be sure that those people who have joined the union & RM over the last 10 years are one of 2 breeds. 1. Those that have been made redundant from previous employment (probably government jobs sold to private industry). OR 2. Young people who were unable to get jobs in other companies due to cut backs or personal circumstances. Whichever group, these people will vote YES simply in the HOPE that they can keep a job.
The deal IS bad and the consequences are beginning to take shape in our office. Loss of overtime, no more full time jobs available and those not filled to be lost. Local reps to fight this? I dont think so when CWU HQ have already sanctioned the changes. Who do local reps take stage disagreements to?

kill Joy · Post by **kill Joy** » 25 Nov 2007, 21:01

barkersboy wrote:'ve always predicted a Yes and I reckon it'll be 62% in favour with 38% against and a 77% turn out. also predict most if not all Branches that recomend No will return a Yes. Does anyone know if we'll get that breakdown.

Danger of all this is if I or anyone else is right then someone is going to cry foul which it looks like some faint hearts are already. Just cos some people on here have spoken to a few dozen or a few hundred, well wot about the silent majority.

Also, I predict that when the 'Yes' votes in we'll have the usual - The union is finished, it's the leaderships fault - everything but in reality the memers believed the deal aint as bad as some have made out.

Wotever the result, wot ever our differences we simply must pull together for the battles ahead. One thing is clear the war aint over and we need to be united going forward. For those good comrades threatening to jump I hope they stay and fight. If not then clearly they aint got the stomach for the long hall.

YES vote and the CWU is defunct. Be sure that those people who have joined the union & RM over the last 10 years are one of 2 breeds. 1. Those that have been made redundant from previous employment (probably government jobs sold to private industry). OR 2. Young people who were unable to get jobs in other companies due to cut backs or personal circumstances. Whichever group, these people will vote YES simply in the HOPE that they can keep a job.
The deal IS bad and the consequences are beginning to take shape in our office. Loss of overtime, no more full time jobs available and those not filled to be lost. Local reps to fight this? I dont think so when CWU HQ have already sanctioned the changes. Who do local reps take stage disagreements to?

Sounds like you've given up comrade, I really hope not. I think that most people who have come into this industry over the years, recent or not, have done so more out of necessity rather than a career move. The difference is perhaps the younger ones do not have our background in the labour movement - we have to earn there trust and respect as well as teach them what a union is.

It is my view that the issues you discribe in your office around loss of overtime, full time jobs etc would have happened with or without this deal. Actualy it has been going on in many offices for some time, in some cases years. With the financial state the commpany is in it is enevitable, these attacks will be and have been fought over the years. With thousands of workplaces this sort of thing could never be fought centrally. I have been shocked be people on this site - the self styled left wing militants - who are the ones who believe they can not hold the line. Bizzare really these are the very people who should be able to organise the workers after all they keep telling everybody how to do it. But apparently cant do it themselves. I do not necessarily put you in this camp barkersboy its just an observation.

It also has to be said that if the union controlled things centrally those very people shouting for it now would be arguing against it. They would be calling HQ stalinist dictators. I've seen this happen before in other unions. believe me the CWU is more open and democratic than any other union I have experienced.

Local Reps must go to there Area Reps with diagreements (talk to them in advance if you need to) then if required the Area Rep can pass to Divisional rep. If it cant be resolved a strike ballot can be requested. Also your Branch is there to assist and guide you if you need them.

Good luck and remember - never, ever give up.

lovejoy · Post by **lovejoy** » 25 Nov 2007, 21:16

I've changed my bets ha

65 yes

35 no