Anybody good at calculating odds?

[steve1873]

Ok, had this discussion on another board regarding bizarre coincidences. After I posted it a guy dismissed it and said the law of probability would ensure any postie would encounter similar. I disagreed and still maintain the odds must be in the high thousands, but I am not sure how to calculate odds, since there are so many variables.

Story happened around 2 weeks ago... I had tried to deliver a parcel the previous day, around half an hour fro end of my delivery (lets say number 6 Random Terrace). They weren't in, so I left a card. The next day it was put out for re-delivery. Now obviously the people in the house don't speak to each other about arrangements.

Anyway, so I goes about my delivery and just as I knock on door my mobile goes (delivery office) so as I am answering the customer comes to the door so I say to person in callers office that customer had just amswered door and I would speak to him in a second once I had dealt with customer.

So I hands parcel to customer then proceed to talk to colleague in callers office. He is saying that there is a customer inlooking for his item and they couldn't find it. The customer was from 6 Random Terrace!

So i explain that the item had been put out for re-delivery and I had just that second delivered it.

Bit of info about my delivery. It has 596 delivery points and takes around 3 and a half hours (pre methods revision).

The guy that claimed it was not that unlikely was presuming I would receive a similar style call each day. I had to explain that in nearly 9 years I had probably received a total of 4 or 5 calls from the office regarding items that they couldn't find. I also had to try explain that no 2 days are exactly the same with regard to what time you would be at a certain delivery point.

Anyway, has anyone had anything similar happen or have any idea what the odds of receiving such a call while chapping/ delivering to the exact address the call was in regard to?

[fishtank]

That's an unusual post.
The odds on it happening are whatever the odds are on someone coming in to collect something when they've already booked a redelivery(difficult to measure unless you know how often this happens) multiplied by the odds of you standing at that particular door when they do(probably around 600-1).
Knock yourself out.

[IcanthelpthewayIam]

Ok, had this discussion on another board regarding bizarre coincidences. After I posted it a guy dismissed it and said the law of probability would ensure any postie would encounter similar. I disagreed and still maintain the odds must be in the high thousands, but I am not sure how to calculate odds, since there are so many variables.

Story happened around 2 weeks ago... I had tried to deliver a parcel the previous day, around half an hour fro end of my delivery (lets say number 6 Random Terrace). They weren't in, so I left a card. The next day it was put out for re-delivery. Now obviously the people in the house don't speak to each other about arrangements.

Anyway, so I goes about my delivery and just as I knock on door my mobile goes (delivery office) so as I am answering the customer comes to the door so I say to person in callers office that customer had just amswered door and I would speak to him in a second once I had dealt with customer.

So I hands parcel to customer then proceed to talk to colleague in callers office. He is saying that there is a customer inlooking for his item and they couldn't find it. The customer was from 6 Random Terrace!

So i explain that the item had been put out for re-delivery and I had just that second delivered it.

Bit of info about my delivery. It has 596 delivery points and takes around 3 and a half hours (pre methods revision).

The guy that claimed it was not that unlikely was presuming I would receive a similar style call each day. I had to explain that in nearly 9 years I had probably received a total of 4 or 5 calls from the office regarding items that they couldn't find. I also had to try explain that no 2 days are exactly the same with regard to what time you would be at a certain delivery point.

Anyway, has anyone had anything similar happen or have any idea what the odds of receiving such a call while chapping/ delivering to the exact address the call was in regard to?

the odds of it happening would be 1 in 596, this is due to a certain fixed aspect of your story, ie he called that very day, so on that day he called you were only going to 596 addresses so the chance of you being at any certain one of them is 1 in 596

[steve1873]

That's an unusual post.
The odds on it happening are whatever the odds are on someone coming in to collect something when they've already booked a redirection(difficult to measure unless you know how often this happens) multiplied by the odds of you standing at that particular door when they do(probably around 600-1).
Knock yourself out.

Yeah, this is what I figured. However, with regard to the 600-1 part, that would only really be applicable if there was no travelling between delivery points surely? Taking in to account the walking between delivery points would increase thos odds I would think.

And yes, I agree it is an unusual post haha! But wondered if any posties had encountered anything even remotely similar.

[fishtank]

the odds of it happening would be 1 in 596, this is due to a certain fixed aspect of your story, ie he called that very day, so on that day he called you were only going to 596 addresses so the chance of you being at any certain one of them is 1 in 596

That's ignoring the first variable.
What are the odds on some idiot actually going to pick up the item when they've already booked a redelivery.
You're as tight as Ladbrokes zx.

[krussel]

I suggest you purchase 5 lotto tickets this sat whilst the odds run in your favour.

[wiganpostie]

You would need to factor in attendance calls to the calculation as well (obviously you spend more time at an address for one), as well as call rate for that particular day.

[Pat Ostman]

the odds of it happening would be 1 in 596, this is due to a certain fixed aspect of your story, ie he called that very day, so on that day he called you were only going to 596 addresses so the chance of you being at any certain one of them is 1 in 596

That's ignoring the first variable.
What are the odds on some idiot actually going to pick up the item when they've already booked a redelivery.
You're as tight as Ladbrokes zx.

I agree, not only that but the exact moment at that door? so.....

1 in 596 and adding a little variable for the non communication aspect I would say around 1 in quite a lot lol. You are correct and the other forum were wrong.

I doubt it happens once a year let alone every day in Royal so the odds must be in the hundreds of thousands. Over seven years in and nope, ain't happened to me!

[saddlerposty]

simples .....596 houses x 6 days in a week, dived by 210 minutes =sq root of the callers office x the number of pkts notified in a day =736......spooky or what

[Bahia Feliz]

I was collecting from a box about a year ago now,my phone rang,it was my sis in law telling me that she had put a lovefilm disc in a box and it was sticking out of the top as the box may have been full.
She was worried it may get stolen and wondered if i could help in any way.I was actually at the very postbox that she had posted it in and she was amazed when i said i actually had the item in my hand at the very moment that my phone rang!!

[IcanthelpthewayIam]

the odds of it happening would be 1 in 596, this is due to a certain fixed aspect of your story, ie he called that very day, so on that day he called you were only going to 596 addresses so the chance of you being at any certain one of them is 1 in 596

That's ignoring the first variable.
What are the odds on some idiot actually going to pick up the item when they've already booked a redelivery.
You're as tight as Ladbrokes zx.

its not me being tight, its called conditional probability, if the original poster has said what was the chance of the customer calling his office at the exact time he was at the door, then the odds would be extremely high, but he has put a constraint or condition on the calculation, he has basically asked what is the chances of event B happening (customer calling about parcel) in the event of event A happening first (a missed deliver the previous day) hence why the odds are so low, he has linked the two events

[Silly Sarah]

And the point of this post is? ....oh there isn't one

[Postie45]

in simple terms its highly unlikely that this would happen to YOU at any one moment
but probability wise this must happen to people working at RM as a whole many times.

[paulsmd]

Get a life.

Ok, had this discussion on another board regarding bizarre coincidences. After I posted it a guy dismissed it and said the law of probability would ensure any postie would encounter similar. I disagreed and still maintain the odds must be in the high thousands, but I am not sure how to calculate odds, since there are so many variables.

Story happened around 2 weeks ago... I had tried to deliver a parcel the previous day, around half an hour fro end of my delivery (lets say number 6 Random Terrace). They weren't in, so I left a card. The next day it was put out for re-delivery. Now obviously the people in the house don't speak to each other about arrangements.

Anyway, so I goes about my delivery and just as I knock on door my mobile goes (delivery office) so as I am answering the customer comes to the door so I say to person in callers office that customer had just amswered door and I would speak to him in a second once I had dealt with customer.

So I hands parcel to customer then proceed to talk to colleague in callers office. He is saying that there is a customer inlooking for his item and they couldn't find it. The customer was from 6 Random Terrace!

So i explain that the item had been put out for re-delivery and I had just that second delivered it.

Bit of info about my delivery. It has 596 delivery points and takes around 3 and a half hours (pre methods revision).

The guy that claimed it was not that unlikely was presuming I would receive a similar style call each day. I had to explain that in nearly 9 years I had probably received a total of 4 or 5 calls from the office regarding items that they couldn't find. I also had to try explain that no 2 days are exactly the same with regard to what time you would be at a certain delivery point.

Anyway, has anyone had anything similar happen or have any idea what the odds of receiving such a call while chapping/ delivering to the exact address the call was in regard to?

[steve1873]

Get a life

I'd say the odds on you being a tit are about 1/100