Things will get worse before getting better

[F0zziebear]

Morning all,

I have said this before, but hopefully you might listen based on what has happened. As stated in previous posts much of the growth in the postal sector came from banks and the public sector. Not rocket science I know, but here me out. The banks have fallen into real trouble, cut lending and your regular capital one offer of a credit card has all but disappeared. Banks are also now seriously trying to move transactional mail online. Bills online etc. The mobile phone companies have and are doing this as we speak.

Just as you think the economy is turning the corner things will get worse. Why? (Please note that in general postal volumes follow Gross Domestic Product). The public sector http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... cJEzz5Ud_k according to this report will need to contract at 2% a year for the next five years at least. You see, over the last decade the public sector has expanded significantly and so has it's communications budget. They are now spending millions on TV, radio and print. Don't cross the road without looking, watch out for cyclists, recycle, watch out for trains, don't cross railway tracks, do cross them, don't pick your nose, drink responsibly etc. Many of these adverts, warning, and other information come through the letterbox. Wonderful we all say. A Problem though, it comes from non-staff spend. When cutting costs department heads hate cutting jobs (may seem odd in your situation) but we all like the easy way out and it much easier to cut spend on print as you do not directly feel the pain. However, whenever you cut spending someone suffers. It might be a printer many miles away, or possibly eating into the big black hole known as Royal Mail.

My own opinion is that the true state of postal volumes has been masked for several years. A contraction in the tens of thousands of postmen means that remaining postmen (used in a gender neutral way) have not and do not feel this decrease as their rounds have become larger and heavier. We can continue to debate this all we like. So I believe the contraction in volumes and therefore revenue will continue on both total volumes and revenue per item for several years to come.

I believe that prices will have to rise significantly to be able to continue providing the USO as you can only cut frontline jobs so far before not being physically able to cover the country even at 4mph. Once those prices begin to rise over and above inflation it will become viable for the competitors (if they come together) to create a rival front line network. However, competition as it is I find this unlikely to happen on the grounds that it has never happened before and would be too difficult to manage. Who would be responsible for the quality? Maybe a private finance company could set it up and competitors could then pay them to use the network. Very expensive and high risk approach, but who knows....

[hubbahubba]

Not really news as such,just your opinion?I dare say things are tightening up,but you dont mention the massive increase in packet post in the last few years though?As always RM pick the figures they suit them (10% year on year,etc).Posties on the ground know the score,so i listen to them,rather than so-called "experts" in the postal industry....

[F0zziebear]

You are right, it is my opinion and you are entitled to disagree. Packets have increased and will do so more, whether they fill the gap that I outlined earlier is questionable in terms of cost to handle them.

I still stand by the fact that more money will need to be found to restructure more sorting machinery to handle packets and also to re-design sorting offices and calling offices to handle this increase in size of item.

I was lucky enough to work both 'on the ground' and in the ivory towers of RM and saw first hand how the calling offices cannot handle returned items and also how there is difficulty in handling packets and large distributions in general. National packet deliveries such as light-bulbs and book launches have proved exceedingly difficult and actually cost RM in terms of over-time to fulfill the contract.

I do not know the % of returned packets to delivery offices, but would curious to know and then one could begin to work out the space required to store them, and for how one should store them before being returned to sender.

This is going off topic, or probably more as an amendment. I am sure the boffins in RM towers are considering this, but whether they can implement the necessary changes is another matter entirely.

[Ahebban]

Here is an example of 'worse before getting better' ... Our DO has received orders from on high that we are to use a 'gun' at the caller's office for the customer collection of any item requiring a signature. We have been allocated a single gun for this purpose. How can that be seen as efficient as there can be up to 3 people helping to clear customers on a Saturday morning! How can you expect people to pay more for a signatured service when they have to wait longer to actually collect it from the caller's office!

An example of new technology being used for the sake of it, and not necessarily for its efficiency.

[Geezer]

Take away the pension deficit, Which is really owed by progressive Governments not RM and with this years profit £232 million ( if i remember right, )
Add to this the £800 Million they have to pay back to the pension and we would have made Over a Billion Pound Profit.
This would then allow money to invest in staff and equipment to make RM the best and most reliable postal service around.
But Alas i don't think this is what the Government want as they have to many friends in big businesses that want a piece of RM's Pie.

So because of :mfo and His Greedy Bum Chums, The Public and Small businesses with lose out again.

[norbert]

Take away the pension deficit, Which is really owed by progressive Governments not RM and with this years profit £232 million ( if i remember right, )
Add to this the £800 Million they have to pay back to the pension and we would have made Over a Billion Pound Profit.
This would then allow money to invest in staff and equipment to make RM the best and most reliable postal service around.
But Alas i don't think this is what the Government want as they have to many friends in big businesses that want a piece of RM's Pie.

So because of :mfo and His Greedy Bum Chums, The Public and Small businesses with lose out again.

too many Big Business Friends in Europe too - Mandy is due a nice pension from the time he was EEC Commissioner - that is dependent on nothing being remotely critical of the EEC .

Basically the EEC want directives / decrees passed that allow Big Businesses / The Banks to get their hands on the public sector pie full stop - not just RM

[dvbuk55]

Here is an example of 'worse before getting better' ... Our DO has received orders from on high that we are to use a 'gun' at the caller's office for the customer collection of any item requiring a signature. We have been allocated a single gun for this purpose. How can that be seen as efficient as there can be up to 3 people helping to clear customers on a Saturday morning! How can you expect people to pay more for a signatured service when they have to wait longer to actually collect it from the caller's office!

An example of new technology being used for the sake of it, and not necessarily for its efficiency.

Ah! - You've spotted the flaw in the system, too many packets, many assistants - well more than one, only one PDA! The system is usually on the go with two cards running simultaneously - now, scan the item, type in the customers name, get them to sign - 2 minutes before 5 minutes now - yep that's modernisation for you. It does save scanning the 002C items though.

There aren't enough PDAs, plain and simple. In our office, on a daily basis, we are robbing peter to pay paul and having people take work that doesn't really belong to their duty...............

[OnAFlyer]

I believe that prices will have to rise significantly to be able to continue providing the USO as you can only cut frontline jobs so far before not being physically able to cover the country even at 4mph.

I agree 100% and have mentioned something similar before. Something is going to have to give, as we're almost at the point where RM cannot make a profit at current postage prices, so they're trying to cut staff numbers to balance the books - but that avenue is almost exhausted as well, as we're seeing with the current workloads.

We're almost at a tipping point where the company cannot sustain itself given it's current obligations.

[TrueBlueTerrier]

Not really news as such,just your opinion

.. and on that basis moved to Blue Shirts