No. 387/14 Scottish Independence

[TrueBlueTerrier]

No. 387/14
Ref: GS14.10
Date: 13th June 2014

To: All Branches


Dear Colleagues

Scottish Independence

We have continued to monitor and track available information on the Scottish Independence debate including current research and polling data. Our Research team has produced several updates: the reports for April and May 2014 are attached for your information.

At CWU conference branch delegates voted overwhelmingly to recommend to our members living in Scotland to vote ‘no’ in the Scottish Independence Referendum due to take place on 18th September 2014.

In agreeing the motion, conference accepted that branches in Scotland were entitled to make local recommendations to their branch members on this question. Throughout the consultative process with our members in Scotland - the union nationally has been very consistent in the view that branches would have the democratic right to make their own recommendation to branch members on this question. Conference also agreed that it was incumbent on the union nationally to make a recommendation to our members in Scotland on independence, given its potential effect on them and on the industries in which they work.

The CWU is preparing appropriate communications as the motion agreed and whilst this will only be sent to our members in Scotland, we intend to issue a further LTB to all branches with details of this.

Any enquiries on this LTB should be forwarded to the General Secretary’s Office at gsoffice@cwu.org quoting reference GS14.10/LTB387/14.

Yours sincerely



W HAYES
General Secretary

[TrueBlueTerrier]

APRIL 2014

UK Government

Energy costs
On 9 April the Department for Energy and Climate Change published a report in which it argued that an independent Scotland could expect to lose subsidies to green energy investment from the rest of the UK.1 It also estimated the average Scottish bill would rise by between £38 and £189 per year under independence if Scots were to sustain the current plans for renewable power. The paper added that a "continuing UK would not be obliged to purchase energy from an independent Scottish state."2
International aid
On 14 April International Development Secretary Justine Greening said the contribution of Scottish charities, universities and institutions was at the heart of the UK’s international efforts and that these have a “far more positive impact” as part of the Union. As the world’s second biggest aid donor, she said the UK uses economies of scale to squeeze the maximum value for money out of every aid penny.3
Trident
On 15 April Defence Secretary Philip Hammond gave a speech in Glasgow in which he said that the government of an independent Scotland would have to pay part of the cost of removing the Trident base from the Clyde.4 He also said “everything” would be up for negotiation if the union broke up.5
Northern and Western Isles
On 16 April Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael promised to deliver more powers to the Northern and Western Isles if Scotland voted remain part of the UK. He said the isles should have "the maximum amount of control", with a devolved government in Edinburgh continuing to look after issues such as health and education, although control of defence, foreign affairs and "our bigger economy" should remain in London.6


Scotland Analysis: Welfare
On 24 April the UK Government issued a Scotland Analysis paper, on welfare7 in which it said vulnerable people would be put at risk in an independent Scotland because they would lose the safety net of a UK-wide welfare system. The paper said spending on benefits per head of the population in Scotland is 2 per cent higher than in the UK as a whole – and has been as much as 9 per cent higher in the past. Ministers warned it would cost an independent Scotland about £200m a year to continue to provide support to the unemployed at current levels. They also threatened to ban an independent Scotland from sharing the UK’s benefits system if it wanted to have different policies, as the extra costs and risks “would not be in the interests of the Government”. If Scotland opted for its own system, the paper estimated the IT start-up costs alone would be between £300m and £400m.8 It also says that SNP policy pledges and the impact of an ageing population would add about £450 more per working-age person each year over the next two decades. The total includes £410 of extra spending on pensioners and £40 more on workers.9
Our place in the world
On 28 April, the UK government published the third in its fact sheet series on independence. ‘Our place in the world’ discusses the position an independent Scotland would have internationally compared to its position as part of the UK.10
Scottish Government

Billboards

A freedom of information request published on 1 April showed that billboards publicising the independence white paper cost the Scottish government £84,000.11

Energy report
On 7 April the Scottish government published a report arguing that the rest of the UK needs Scotland to keep the lights on and electricity bills down. The report was intended to counter concerns that independence would hurt power producers and consumers north of the border. The report is critical about the UK government’s handling of energy policy and insists that whilst an independent Scotland would seek a continued shared British electricity market, Edinburgh would demand much greater oversight and stronger safeguards over security of supply.12
SNP spring conference
At the SNP spring conference, Deputy Leader Nicola Sturgeon said that independence would provide the opportunity for Labour supporters to “reclaim” their party. Scottish Labour, she said could be rejuvenated by being freed from Westminster control.13 She also said the No campaign was in “deep trouble”.
First Minister Alex Salmond used his conference speech to brand the Better Together campaign as "the most miserable, negative, depressing and thoroughly boring campaign in modern political history." He also told delegates that the vote on whether Scotland should stay in the UK was not about the SNP or about him but about Scotland taking back control from Westminster. He said an independent Scotland may have a government formed by the SNP, Labour or a coalition but that it would not produce "a government led by a party with just a single MP in Scotland" referring to the Conservatives.14 He also argued Scottish women would be better off under independence. He promoted two new female ministers to the full Scottish Cabinet and once again called for boards of businesses to contain at least 40 per cent women after independence.15
STUC
Alex Salmond addressed the STUC conference in April, telling delegates that the SNP’s plan to cut corporation tax was needed to “address the pull of the London economy” and attract firms to an independent Scotland. On the living wage, he claimed the Scottish Government was currently unable to use its existing powers to insist that all firms benefiting from public contracts pay the living wage, as it could be “struck down” by the European Union. He said that all those directly employed by the Scottish government were paid a living wage. He declined to guarantee the introduction of a compulsory living wage in an independent Scotland but said that a yes vote for independence would mean Scotland could vote for parties backing the living wage.16
Europe
On 29 April, Alex Salmond gave a speech to the College of Europe at Bruges, in which he said an independent Scotland would be an "enthusiastic, engaged and committed contributor to European progress" and that a possible in/out UK referendum on the EU presented a "real risk" to Scotland's place in Europe.17
Assets
On 30 April Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said the UK Government needs to set out the share of UK assets an independent Scotland would inherit, and that this should include, “a share of physical assets located elsewhere” in the UK.18 UK assets are currently worth nearly £1.3 trillion.
UK Parliament
Scottish participation in the 2015 General Election
On 3 April it was reported that Tory MPs had called for a law change to block Scottish voters from taking part in the 2015 general election if they back independence. So far, there has been no decision on what would happen to Scotland's Westminster seats between parliamentary elections and March 2016, when it would become an independent nation, in the event of a yes vote.19

Scottish Affairs Committee
On 4 April it was reported that the Scottish Affairs Committee had called George Osborne MP, Ed Balls MP and Chief Secretary to the Treasury to give evidence on currency union in a separate Scotland. Details of the session are to be confirmed.20
On 9 April the Scottish Affairs committee took evidence from David Lidington, Minister for Europe, and James Brokenshire, Minister for Immigration and Security, on their respective papers on the implications of Scottish Independence published as part of the UK government’s Scotland Analysis series.21 A transcript of the session has not yet been published.
Public Administration Committee
On 9 April Sir Nicholas Macpherson, Permanent Secretary at HM Treasury, gave evidence to the Public Administration Committee for their inquiry into civil service impartiality and referendums. He told them it was his decision and duty to publish advice against a currency union with an independent Scotland.22 Macpherson said he put his name to the advice because the Scottish government were "casting aspersions on the UK government's integrity".
Shadow Scottish Secretary
On 16 April Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curren argued Scottish women were better off if Scotland remained part of the UK and pledged to:
Introduce 25 hours of free childcare a week for every three and four-year-old and 15 hours a week for vulnerable two-year-olds.
Close the pay gap between men and women in Scotland by forcing companies to publish their pay scales.
Introduce tax incentives for firms who pay the living wage of £7.65 per hour.
Tackle discrimination against the estimated 5000 Scots women who go on maternity leave every year but don’t get a chance to return to work.
Introduce a 50% quota of women on public boards23
Shadow Home Secretary
On 24 April Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the SNP’s plans for an independent Scotland to pursue a more liberal immigration policy raised questions about the impact increased rates of migration would have on public services, wages and on the rest of the UK. She told the Guardian that Alex Salmond needed to publish the Scottish government's analysis about the numbers of additional migrants and the potential costs and benefits to the economy, particularly to meet a predicted pensions deficit because of Scotland's ageing population.24

Scottish Parliament

Economy committee
On 2 April CBI Scotland director Iain McMillan gave evidence to the Economy Committee, in which he accepted Chancellor George Osborne's warning that the UK government would not agree to share the pound in a formal currency union with an independent Scotland. He also told MSPs that Scotland would still need to attack the deficit and deal with fiscal consolidation and that this would result in many difficult decisions about taxation and spending.25
Owen Kelly of Scottish Financial Enterprise (SFE), Ian McKay of the Institute of Directors Scotland (ISD), Colin Borland of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) and Gary Clarke of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce also took part in the session. ISD chairman Mr McKay said both sides were making too many promises on spending for the future, while Mr Borland, head of external affairs for the FSB in Scotland, said he wanted more answers to practical questions. MSPs also heard from the Jimmy Reid Foundation think tank, which said the risks of independence had probably been overstated and were "largely temporary".
On 23 April the Economy Committee took oral evidence from anti-poverty campaigners on Scottish independence. Katherine Trebeck, a senior adviser to Oxfam, said the Scottish government's White Paper on independence did not offer a "radical alternative" to UK policies and that it proposed a "low road" to faster growth and exploiting oil fields. Morag Gillespie, from Glasgow Caledonian University, said Holyrood needed full control over social security whether or not Scots voted for independence. She said she had read a submission from the IPPR think tank arguing for partial devolution of welfare benefits, telling MSPs: "Personally, I have to say that down that route lays chaos." Jim McCormick from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation told the committee the Scottish Parliament could do more with its current powers.26
The Committee also took evidence from Robert Chote, Director of the Office for Budget Responsibility who rejected the suggestion that there could be another North Sea Oil boom. He said the amount of oil recovered from the North Sea had fallen for the past 13 years and that whilst this may stabilise, there was no likelihood of an increase.27
Education and Culture Committee
On 22 April former BBC Trust member Jeremy Peat told the Education and Culture Committee that Scottish viewers might not have "free and unfettered" access to all BBC services. He suggested that digital services could be cut off and viewers could be required to pay for other services such as iPlayer.28
Finance Committee
On 30 April Jo Armstrong from the Centre of Public Policy for Regions said in a written submission to Holyrood’s Finance committee that the suggestion that an independent Scotland could refuse to take on a share of the UK’s debt if no deal was reached on sharing the pound was “flawed” and would result in an “acrimonious” division of debt.29 Alex Salmond has said he would withhold Scotland’s share of the debt if Westminster did not agree to share the pound with an independent Scotland.
Murdo Fraser MSP
This month Conservative MSP Murdo Fraser tabled a number of parliamentary questions related to the costs of postal services in an independent Scotland. He told STV that independence could mean higher delivery costs and potentially poorer service. In response Finance Secretary John Swinney said the intention was that "postal charges to the rest of the UK will not be more expensive than charges to send post within Scotland". Swinney also said:
"Our approach to bringing the Royal Mail in Scotland back into public ownership will be considered in the light of circumstances at the point of independence, including the prevailing structure of the Royal Mail. It will require negotiation with the UK on Scotland's share of the government stake and establishing a new publicly-owned postal service in Scotland."30
Green party “bold ideas”
In April the Scottish Green party launched a campaign to focus on how independence could allow Scotland to “pursue bold ideas”. Green MSP Patrick Harvie unveiled a new paper which argued that the economic powers of independence could allow Scotland to create local banks to support lending, as well as a single regulator for micro-businesses in a bid to encourage entrepreneurs. Harvie launched the Jobs-rich, Fair and Flourishing: An Economy For All31 paper during a visit to a games developer in the heart of Dundee’s digital business district.32
Yes and No campaigns

On 23 April the Electoral Commission designated the Better Together and the Yes Scotland campaigns as the lead campaign groups ahead of the Scottish independence referendum. Each campaign will be subject to a £1.5m spending limit as well as other rules in the lead up to the vote.33

Better Together

Defence jobs

On 13 April Better Together Chairman Alistair Darling visited a Glasgow engineering firm to highlight the importance to the defence sector of Scotland remaining part of the UK.34

Gordon Brown

On 22 April Gordon Brown gave his first speech for the Better Together campaign, at Glasgow University. In the speech, he said Scottish pensioners are better protected while Scotland shares risks and resources with the rest of the UK. He also said pensioner numbers in Scotland were rising faster than the UK average and that it was fairer and better for the UK's faster-rising working-age population to cover the cost of the rising number of elderly people in Scotland. Brown said previously unpublished Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) figures and estimates show:
Scotland pays 8% of UK National Insurance but receives "upwards of 9%" of the benefits;
the "extra benefit" Scotland receives in terms of pensions (the gap between contributions and returns) will rise from £425m to £700m per year over the next 20 years;
the UK will "underwrite" Scotland's estimated £100bn public sector pensions bill. He will say this is 10% of the UK total - while Scotland has just 8% of the UK population;
it would cost about £1bn for Scotland to administer the first years of a separate pensions and benefits system once IT costs were included - which Brown said "makes no sense".35
Yes Scotland

On 28 April, the Scottish Tories accused the Yes Scotland campaign of using “dummy front” organisations to maximise spending on the referendum debate, after it emerged that Christians for Scotland received £100k from the founder of Stagecoach, Sir Brian Souter.36 The Tories suggested such groups were being used to get around legal spending limits, but the Yes Scotland campaign denied this and said that pro-union campaign was trying to shift attention away from the controversy surrounding the CBI’s decision to back its campaign (discussed below).
Public Opinion
Panelbase/Sunday Times
On 6 April the Sunday Times published the results of a Panelbase poll showing 47% of Scots were in favour of breaking away from the UK – just six points behind those who would vote to remain.37
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland
On 6 April a Panelbase poll for pro-independence group Wings Over Scotland put the yes vote on 41% and the no vote on 46%. However Professor John Curtice said the poll should not be cited as evidence that there is now a “nationalist bandwagon moving continuously and relentlessly towards the 50 per cent mark”.38
Survation/Daily Record
On 11 April the results of a Survation poll for the Daily Record were published showing 28% of Scots were more likely to back a yes vote following the decision by Chancellor George Osborne to reject the SNP plan to keep using sterling. It compares with 21% who said they are now more likely to vote no, and 51% who said it made no difference.39
TNS
ON 15 April a TNS poll was published showing 41% of voters in Scotland plan to reject independence, a drop of one point, with 29% in favour, an increase of one point. Thirty percent of voters said they were undecided, unchanged from a month before.40
Welsh YouGov survey
On 19 April YouGov published the results of its survey of 1,000 Welsh adults which found that 62% answered No when asked if Scotland should be independent, with just 16% saying Yes. The results also showed nearly three-quarters either thought the decision would be bad for Wales (32%) or neither good or bad (41%), with just 10% saying it would be good for the principality. Surprisingly, 41% of Plaid Cymru voters at the last Westminster elections would say no to Scotland becoming independent, with 48% in favour. Welsh papers reported that the results contradict previous polling which suggested people in England and Wales were indifferent about Scotland voting for independence.41
ICM/Scotland on Sunday
On 20 April Scotland on Sunday reported the results of an ICM poll showing support for independence is at 39%, while opposition has fallen four points to 42%. Excluding people who have not yet made up their minds, the results put yes on 48% and no on 52%. It is the highest level of support for independence since last August, leading the Yes Scotland campaign group to claim it is confident of securing the necessary two-point swing.
Survation/Sunday Post
On 20 April the Sunday Post published the results of a Survation poll showing the yes vote up one point to 38% and a no vote down one point to 46%. When the "don't knows" are stripped out, the results are 55%-45% in favour of keeping Scotland in the UK.42
Business opinion

Weir Group
On 3 April the Glasgow based engineering firm Weir Group issued a report43 compiled by Oxford Economics in which its Chief Executive Keith Cochrane said Scottish independence would carry “substantial risks” to the economy and that higher taxes were likely.44 Cochrane, who said he would personally be voting "No" in the referendum, said there were "benefits" in an independent Scotland being able to do things differently from the rest of the UK, but said that status meant "additional costs for companies that operate across these islands".
BSkyB
On 3 April Satellite broadcaster BSkyB said it has no plans to change its business in Scotland, whatever the outcome of September's independence referendum, and that it would remain neutral in the debate.45
Scottish Whisky Association
On 11 April the Scottish Whisky Association declined to adopt a position in relation to independence, but Chief Executive David Frost stressed the importance of strong political support from government, whether to influence European Union negotiations or press other countries for better market access. He continued, "Whatever the outcome of the Scottish referendum, as an industry exporting to around 200 markets, we will continue to need the backing of an effective diplomatic network with the necessary global reach, commercial expertise, and capacity to influence."46
BP
On 11 April Carl-Henric Svanberg took a more emollient stance on Scottish independence than the company’s Chief Executive Bob Dudley, by saying it would not have a major long-term impact on its North Sea operations. BP’s Chief Executive, Bob Dudley, previously told an event at the Excel Centre: "We have a £10 billion programme of investment over the next 10 years in the North Sea. Therefore uncertainty does make us think carefully about issues like currency and other things."47
ADS
On 13 April defence and aerospace trade body, ADS, warned of the uncertainty that breaking up the UK would cause. Its chief executive Paul Everitt said: “ADS members in the UK aerospace, defence, security and space industries benefit from the stability, strength and scale of the whole of the UK. What we fear is the potential period of uncertainty of an indeterminate length.”48
Energy UK
In an interview with the Huffington Post on 16 April, Energy UK Chief Executive Angela Knight said Scottish independence could be a "bit of a nightmare" for the energy industry that could see companies forced to pass on the costs of the extra regulation needed to the consumer. She said that a "single market called Great Britain is actually important" for energy companies due its coherent system of regulation.49
CBI
On 18 April it was reported that the CBI had registered with the Electoral Commission as a supporter of the pro-union Better Together Campaign. Two companies said they would leave the CBI as a result: Aquamarine Power, which is developing wave power machines in Edinburgh and Orkney, and is remaining neutral in the debate; and the Balhousie care home group.50 Three universities – Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen - also decided to leave the CBI in order to remain impartial, as did Scottish Enterprise, Visit Scotland and STV.51 On 22 April Strathclyde University, Glasgow Caledonian University, the Law Society of Scotland, Skills Development Scotland and Highlands and Islands Enterprise also left the CBI.52 The BBC also suspended its membership for the campaign period53 and was considering calls from the National Union of Journalists to resign immediately.54
On 26 April it was reported that the CBI had asked the Electoral Commission to “nullify” its registration as a supporter of the no campaign. CBI Director-General John Cridland said it had made an "honest mistake" and was now seeking to reverse its decision on the basis it had not been approved by the CBI board and was not signed by an authorised signatory.55 He said registering with the Electoral Commission had "triggered something none of us expected", that the organisation was now conducting a review of the situation and had taken legal advice from a QC on the matter which concluded "it was never a valid application". On 28 April it was announced that CBI Scotland boss Iain McMillan was stepping down.56
British Banking Association

On 26 April it was reported that the British Banking Association (BBA) had decided to take a neutral stance in the independence debate. The organisation had canvassed its membership about whether or not it should support the no campaign, but said it found little appetite to support the campaign.57




Trade unions

Unite
On 1 April Unite General Secretary Len McCluskey spoke at the House of Commons press gallery lunch. He criticised the negativity of the Better Together campaign to keep Scotland in the UK and said that Scots will back independence if they think the Tories can win the 2015 election.58
CWU
On 28 April CWU conference overwhelmingly supported a motion recommending that Scottish members vote no in the independence referendum. The motion allows individual Scottish branches to make local recommendations to their branch members.59
Other sources
Voter registration
On 2 April the BBC reported that voter registration in Scotland was at its highest levels, with an estimated 4.1 million people now on the electoral roll - an increase of nearly 60,000 voters since December 2012. So far, around 92,000 out of a possible 120,000 have added their names to the list.60
Religion and a Scottish constitution
On 6 April the BBC reported that the Church of Scotland and the Catholic Church have joined forces with other major religious and faith groups to "stake a claim" for recognition for religion in any written constitution in an independent Scotland. They plan to hold an interfaith conference on the subject in Coatbridge, North Lanarkshire, in July.61
Lord Robertson
On 8 April the BBC reported on a speech given by Lord Robertson, former Secretary General of NATO, in which he said a "debilitating divorce" after a "Yes" vote in September would threaten the stability of the wider world. He also said he believed the American administration was worried about the possibility of Scottish independence. He said the US should make its views public - as should all British allies.62
Royal Economic Society
On 9 April Dr David Comerford of Stirling University and Professor Jose V. Rodriguez Mora of Edinburgh University presented a paper to the Royal Economic Society conference in Manchester. They said an international dividing line between Scotland and England would discourage cross-border trade and cut 5.5 per cent from Scottish gross domestic product. Further losses caused by independence could then include major companies fleeing an independent Scotland, or higher interest rates as a result of the potential loss of the pound.63


NIESR

On 8 April the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said an independent Scotland would “not have the resources” to pay its share of national debt and would leave the rest of the UK shouldering an extra burden of £143bn. The report said Scottish independence could push up the rest of the UK’s debt to GDP ratio by as much as 9% and that the extra burden was likely to catch the attention of credit rating agencies. It also said Scotland would have to commit to far tougher austerity than it has faced in recent years.64

Diplomatic corps

On 10 April the Guardian reported that sources in the diplomatic corps in Edinburgh, home to nearly 50 consulates and diplomatic missions, believe the tide of opinion has shifted significantly in recent months and that Scotland is now likely to vote for independence.65

Fitch

On Thursday 10 April credit rating agency Fitch said that United Kingdom would need longer to recover the triple-A debt rating it lost last year if Scotland votes for independence in September. Fitch said London's promise to honor all existing United Kingdom debt in the event of independence and seek recompense from the new Edinburgh government would raise the United Kingdom's debt burden as a share of gross domestic product by almost 10 percentage points.66

First Sea Lord

On 15 April the First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir George Zambellas, claimed the "very heart" of Britain's maritime forces would be damaged by Scottish independence. He said the nations that remained in the UK would adapt and cope eventually but he said Scotland would feel a "deeper impact" if it broke away and that a divided UK would mean a weaker Royal Navy.67
Aberdeen City Council
On 16 April Audit Scotland ruled that the pro-union letters sent out to council tax payers by Aberdeen City Council, whilst an unusual move, were an accurate statement of council policy not precluded by council tax regulations.68
BBC report on postage costs in an independent Scotland
On 19 April the BBC’s Personal Finance Reporter published an article analysing the potential impact of Scottish independence on postage costs in Scotland and the rest of the UK.69 It provides a useful overview but doesn’t contain any new information.
Standard & Poor
On 23 April credit-rating agency Standard and Poor (S&P) said an independent Scotland would struggle to support a viable banking sector in times of trouble. In a report outlining its attitude to providing credit ratings to banks headquartered in an independent Scotland, it said they would take a hit because there was no credible public sector backstop. Although S&P has not taken a position in the independence debate, and said it was not issuing formal guidance, it said the choice of currency regime for Scotland was crucial for the likely ratings of its banks. The report stressed the need for a central bank able and willing to offer lender of last resort support, a high quality regulatory regime and sound deposit insurance arrangements.70
Centre for Economics and Business Research
On 29 April, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said that Scottish households would see a double-digit decline in living standards if the country votes to become independent, as secession would trigger a mass exodus of the financial services industry. The think-tank calculated that independence would lead to a third of jobs (20,000-40,000) in the financial services sector being moved south of the border.71

[TrueBlueTerrier]

MAY 2014


UK Government

Prime Minister

On 10 May David Cameron said he would not resign as Prime Minister if Scotland voted for independence in the referendum.1 Ahead of a two-day tour of Scotland, Cameron also cited the late Labour leader John Smith in comments aimed at persuading Scots to reject independence. Cameron said Mr Smith "knew that loving your country and ... wanting to be part of something bigger does not make you any less Scottish".2

Deputy Prime Minister

On 19 May Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg gave a speech to the Scottish Chambers of Commerce in support of retaining the union.3

Treasury report on the costs of independence

On 28 May HM Treasury published a Scotland Analysis report on the costs of independence and the financial benefit for Scotland of remaining with the UK.4 The report concluded that the benefit for people in Scotland of remaining part of the UK – the ‘UK Dividend’ – is worth around £1,400 per person per year over the 20 years from 2016 to 2017. This is the amount per year that each person in Scotland would be better off by, from lower taxes and sustained public services as part of the UK.

The Treasury also claimed creating essential new institutions after independence would cost Scottish families at least £600 each, with an overall cost figure of £1.5bn. However the Treasury also cited independent research from the LSE and the Institute of Government which suggested the total cost figure could be as high as £2.7bn.5 Later one of the authors behind that research, Patrick Dunleavy of the LSE, said the Treasury had manipulated his research to make the one-off costs of setting up a new government look 10 times larger than they were likely to be;6 however the Treasury stood by its use of the figures.



Scottish Government

Times oil figures

On 27 May the Times reported it had unearthed unpublished Scottish government figures showing that oil and gas production in 2013-14 has fallen in both volume and value, with the result that North Sea oil revenue was set to plunge by more than £1bn.7

First Minister

On 27 May First Minister Alex Salmond set out his post-yes vision for Scotland at a Scottish Cabinet meeting in Rutherglen South Lanarkshire. He said the powers of independence would create "sustainable prosperity across the whole of Scotland".8

Independence ‘bonus’

On 28 May the Scottish government published an assessment of Scotland’s fiscal position, in which it said each Scottish person would receive an annual “independence bonus” of £1,000 within the next 15 years if Scotland voted for independence.9 Alex Salmond said the windfall was a realistic assessment of the benefits of independence, which could mean the country being £5bn a year better off by 2029/30.

Immigration target

On 28 May Salmond said he wanted to increase Scotland’s net migration to around 24,000 a year. He said this target would only require 2,000 extra migrant workers per year compared to the past decade, saying this was an “entirely reasonable” figure and “very realistic”. However the Telegraph highlighted forecasts from the ONS that net migration for Scotland over the long term will only be 15,500 a year; suggesting Salmond would need an additional 9,500 immigrants annually to meet his target, the equivalent of an extra 190,000 foreign workers over the next 20 years.

The First Minister announced the increase after the Treasury said net migration of 24,000 would be needed for the state pension to remain as affordable in an independent Scotland. This is because Scotland’s "dependency ratio" – the number of workers paying taxes to fund each OAP's state pension – would be worse than the UK's.
Without a steep increase in immigration, actuaries have warned that each Scottish worker would have to pay hundreds of pounds more in tax to make good the shortfall.10

Revised oil figures

On 28 May it was reported that SNP ministers claimed North Sea oil will generate more than twice the tax revenue predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) whilst admitting their previous forecasts were too high. While the OBR thinks oil and gas will generate only £2.9 billion in 2016/17, the year Alex Salmond would separate, the SNP claimed on 27 May the actual figure would be £6.9 billion (£1.6bn down on forecasts they published in March 2013).11



UK Parliament

Scottish Affairs Committee

On 7 May Pensions Minister Steve Webb told the Scottish Affairs Committee that older people would be entitled to current levels of state pension in an independent Scotland. He said those who had "accumulated rights" would be entitled to the money but that there were still questions over which government would pay the money. SNP MSP Kenneth Gibson said the comments confirmed that pensions would be secure in an independent Scotland.12

On 14 May the Scottish Affairs committee took evidence from the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury Sir Nicholas Macpherson on the options for Scotland’s currency in the event of any separation from the United Kingdom after September’s referendum.13 The Chancellor said if Scots wanted to continue using the pound after independence, they would do so without the authority of the Bank of England. He said this would mean Scotland could no longer mint its own distinctive pound banknotes as it does today and that Scots would also have to hold enough currency to run their economy.14 He also accused Salmond of misleading the Scottish public by continuing to base his plans for independence on sharing the pound with the United Kingdom.15

On 27 May the Labour-dominated Scottish Affairs Committee published a report on an independent Scotland’s membership of the European Union.16 The report warned that a separate Scotland would face protracted and uncertain negotiations when attempting to secure its position in the European Union, and that while it is likely that it would eventually be accepted as a Member state, it was not credible that it would emerge with the benefits it now enjoys as part of the UK in the EU. The report added complex negotiations would be required, with both the UK and the EU, and any agreement would have to be ratified by 28 Member States. It said there is no evidence or precedent to support the notion that Scotland would get better terms than any of the other recent applicant countries.

Government-commissioned poll

On 13 May SNP MP Angus MacNeil urged Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg to publish the results of an opinion poll commissioned by the UK Government from Ipsos/Mori at a cost to the taxpayer of £46,500. The nationalists believe the publicly-funded survey was buried as it showed a "surge" in support for independence.17 The survey was revealed in a letter under the name Kelly Brown that was sent to a newspaper. The letter's author claimed to work for Ipsos/Mori, and said the results of the poll had been "buried as it returned a result which showed the Yes vote was soaring". Ipsos/Mori has said that it does not employ anyone with the name Kelly Brown. The UK Cabinet Office said it was not usual practice to publish "internal research". David Cameron later said the findings of the government's polls were largely in line with other recently published polls.18
Public Administration Committee

On 6 May the Public Administration Committee took evidence on civil service partiality from:

Sir Bob Kerslake, Head of the Civil Service
Sir Peter Housden, Permanent Secretary to the Scottish Government
David Maddox, The Scotsman
Michael Settle, The Herald
Professor James Mitchell, Professor of Public Policy, Politics and International Relations, School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh19

Sir Peter Housden, the Scottish Government’s permanent secretary, denied becoming a “cheerleader” for independence and said he had raised no concerns with SNP ministers that the White Paper on independence compromised civil service neutrality. He said Ministers had instructed him to compile an “objective” and “informative” analysis of separation but that SNP political special advisers had been closely involved in agreeing the wording of the blueprint.Sir Bob Kerslake, the head of the civil service, said that Sir Peter was duty bound to further the political aims of his ministers and rejected claims that Sir Nicholas Macpherson, the Treasury’s permanent secretary, had compromised his political neutrality by making public his advice that the Chancellor should reject a currency union with a separate Scotland.20

House of Lords Constitution Committee

On 16 May the House of Lords Constitution Committee said Scotland's 59 MPs should be strictly limited to dealing with constituency issues and Scottish affairs immediately after a yes vote and then quit Westminster on the day Scotland declares independence. However the committee said that Scottish members of the Lords should still be allowed to sit in the upper chamber if they continued to pay UK taxes after independence.21
Scottish Parliament

Finance Committee

In early May the National Institute for Economic and Social research (NIESR) told Holyrood’s Finance Committee that an independent Scotland could swap its oil reserves for its share of UK debt. However independent economist Margaret Cuthbert told the committee that such a deal would amount to an “oil grab”.22

On 8 May Professor John Kay, ex-member of the Council of Economic Advisers, told the Finance Committee that negotiations over a currency deal with the remaining parts of the UK would remain “intractable” for Scotland. Although he didn’t believe it was true, he told MSPs that the conventional wisdom, particularly in the Eurozone, was that there can only be a currency union if it leads to financial backing. He said in return for such backing the remaining parts of the UK would want a level of control on fiscal matters in Scotland which the Scottish government would not be willing to concede. Gavin McCrone, a former chief economist at the Scottish Office, also gave evidence. He said that whilst he didn’t think a Chancellor would put UK taxpayers at risk for the sake of Scottish debt, negotiations would take place.23

European and External Relations Committee

On 1 May experts in international aid and development gave evidence to Holyrood’s European and External Relations Committee as part of their inquiry in to an independent Scotland’s role in international affairs. Whilst Scotland’s ambitions on the world stage were welcomed, Ministers were warned to be realistic about Scotland’s global reach. Those giving evidence included David Fish, former head of the Department for International Development Scotland; Gillian Wilson, Chief Executive of the Network of International Development Organisations in Scotland (Nidos); Colin Cameron, a former minister in the Malawi government and former honorary consul Scotland; and Dr Neil Thin of the Global Development Academy at the University of Edinburgh.24

On 23 May the SNP-dominated committee published their second report on Scottish independence, focused on EU membership25 which concluded a five month long inquiry. It said, "The weight of the evidence heard by this committee agreed that continuing in the European Union would be in Scotland's best interests." It conceded there were concerns the process was "likely to be complex" and the timescales could be "challenging” however it also noted other opinion that the Scottish government's plan to negotiate membership in 18 months was achievable.26
Economy Committee

On 21 May Holyrood’s Economy Committee took evidence from the respective Scottish independence campaigning groups, with Alistair Darling and Blair McDougall representing the Better Together campaign and Dennis Canavan and Blair Jenkins representing Yes Scotland.27

Yes and No campaigns

On 1 May rules allowing an unlimited number of groups to register to spend up to £150,000 during the Scottish independence referendum's 16-week campaign were called into question by Edinburgh University lecturer Navraj Singh Ghaleigh. The money does not count towards official lead campaign bodies Yes Scotland's or Better Together's £1.5m spending limit - provided organisations do not work together or co-ordinate their activity - but the lecturer raised concerns that the larger bodies would splinter into smaller organisations in order to spend more. 28

The official campaign period began on 30 May and spending is capped at £1.5m, although both sides arguing for and against independence have been able to run marketing prior to the launch of the official campaign. The rules further specify:

No individual or organisation can spend more than £10,000 on campaigning during the referendum period unless they are registered with the Electoral Commission as a ‘permitted participant’.
Campaigners must keep to spending limits set out in law.
Campaigners that are registered with the Electoral Commission must report any donations over £7,500 that they have received. These will be published over the summer.
Campaigners must only accept donations and loans from permissible sources.
Spending limits for each of the political parties are based on their share of the vote at the last Scottish parliament election. This means the SNP can spend £1.3m, Labour £834k, the Conservatives £396k, the Lib Dems £201k and the Greens £150k.29 Other campaigners can spend up to £150,000, as long as they register with the Electoral Commission.30
On 27 May it was reported that cinema advertisements from both yes and no campaigns were banned collectively by Odeon, Vue, Cineworld and UCI following complaints from customers.31


No campaigns

Vote No Borders

In early May the pro-union Vote No Borders campaign was launched by its spokesperson Malcolm Offord, an investment banker originally from Greenock who works in London and Scotland. The campaign will aim to be a more grassroots organisation than Better Together.32 Offord wanted to raise £400,000 through individual donations and crowd funding and planned to spend almost all of that before the official referendum period began on 30 May.33 However on 29 May the Telegraph reported that a cinema advertisement paid for by Vote No Borders, which warned a vote for independence would hinder Scotland’s children’s access to care at Great Ormond Street Hospital, was withdrawn following a complaint from the hospital.34

Better Together

On 14 May there were reports that Better Together has been in contact with ad agencies including M&C Saatchi, Saatchi & Saatchi and VCCP with regard to their £1.5m campaign.35

Yes campaigns

Scottish Independence Convention

In early May the Scottish Independence Convention (SIC) registered with the Electoral Commission. It will operate as a grassroots organisation.36

Mums for Change

On 2 May the pro-independence group Mums for Change was launched in Glasgow.37

Sunday Herald

In its editorial on 3 May the Sunday Herald came out in support of Scottish independence, saying:

"Scotland is an ancient nation and a modern society. We understand the past, as best we can, and guess at the future. But history is as nothing to the lives of the children being born now, this morning, in the cities, towns and villages of this country. On their behalf, we assert a claim to a better, more decent, more just future in which a country's governments will be ruled always by the decisions of its citizens."38

NHS for Yes

On 24 May the BBC reported on the launch of ‘NHS for Yes’, a group of around 100 health workers who are in favour of independence as they believe it is the only defence against funding cuts from Westminster.39


National Collective, Radical Independence and Women for Independence 

On 25 May the Herald reported on the summer campaigning plans of the National Collective, Radical Independence and Women for Independence groups.40

Options for Scotland

On 29 May the pro-independence group Options for Scotland (OFS)said the Royal Bank of Scotland should be broken up after independence and put under the control of the Scottish government, until it can be returned to the capital markets. They said the Bank of Scotland should also be unpicked from Lloyds Banking Group and Clydesdale Bank taken out of the National Australia Bank group to serve Scottish customers.41

Public Opinion

TNS

On 13 May a survey by TNS showed 42% of respondents plan to vote to remain in the UK, with 30% supporting independence. The 12 percentage-point gap was unchanged from the month before as the proportion of undecided voters dropped two percentage points to 28%. Among people who said they were certain to vote, the gap narrowed to 9 points compared with 22 points in September. TNS also canvassed voters on how each side was putting across its message. It found 53% considered the Better Together campaign negative, compared with 29% for the nationalists. The company said it polled 996 people at least age 16, the minimum to vote in the referendum, on April 23 to May 2. No margin of error was given.42
ICM/Scotland on Sunday
On 18 May ICM published the results of a poll for Scotland on Sunday which showed support for independence falling five percentage points since their last poll a month ago, down to 34%. There was a rise in those opposing independence, with 46% of respondents to the survey backing a no note, up 4 percentage points. The number of ‘don’t knows’ increased one percentage point, to 20%.43
Panelbase/Sunday Times/Heart Radio
On 18 May the Sunday Times published the results of a Panelbase poll it commissioned with Heart Radio which it said showed that English voters living in Scotland could ‘swing’ the independence referendum towards a no vote, with two thirds (66%) of English people living in Scotland intending to vote no compared to 42% of Scots. It reported independence was the most popular choice amongst Scots, with 44% intending to vote yes compared with just 27% of English people living in Scotland. But it said the weight of non-Scottish votes was enough to sway the vote towards No, with overall support for staying with the UK at 47% compared with 40% for Yes.44





Business opinion

Scottish Chamber of Commerce

On 1 May a survey by the Scottish Chamber of Commerce (SCC) was published showing 56% of respondents rated the quality of the independence debate so far as “poor” or “dismal”. None described it as "excellent", with 5% saying it had been "very good" and 41% saying it had been either "good" or "fair". A total of 759 businesses took part.

The survey suggested information provided by pro-independence campaigners has been found to be more useful that that issued by the pro-UK campaign. It found 36% of respondents believed information issued by the Scottish government had been "useful" or "very useful". The figure for the Yes Scotland campaign was 40%. In comparison, information from the UK government was described as "useful or "very useful" by 16% of respondents, with the Better Together campaign faring slightly better on 19%. The UK government information was described as "useless" by 30% of the businesses surveyed. Only 11% of respondents used that term to describe information from the Scottish government.

Other key findings included the following:

18% said they would at least consider moving away from Scotland in the event of a "Yes" vote
53% of businesses saw potential opportunities from independence, while 77% identified potential risks
62% wanted an independent Scotland to retain sterling as part of a formal currency union with the rest of the UK in event of a "Yes" vote
68% of businesses would welcome more powers for the Scottish Parliament in the event of a "No" vote
61% believed leaving the EU - while remaining part of the UK - would have a negative impact on their business45

British Chambers of Commerce

On 7 May the British Chambers of Commerce published a survey showing 85% of businesses outside Scotland want the nation to remain part of the UK whist 11% said Scotland should become independent. However, in the event of a "No" vote, 63% said the current arrangements for funding Britain's devolved nations - calculated under the Barnett formula - had to be reformed.

The survey also said:

A quarter of businesses said Scotland's devolved parliament should get more powers in the event of a "No" vote and 21% said it should have less
63% said no new opportunities would arise for their businesses if Scotland voted for independence
26% said trading across borders was the highest risk of independence, while 47% said a post-"Yes" currency deal was the most important issue for their business
35% said a formal, pound-sharing currency union would be in the best interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK, under independence
28% said Scotland should create its own currency in the event of a "Yes" vote, while 18% said it should join the Euro and 8% backed it to retain Sterling outside a currency union
91% said the independence debate had no impact on business decisions to date, although 11% of firms reported the debate having a negative impact on sales, compared with 5% in August 2013.46



Moody’s

On 1 May the credit ratings agency Moody’s said that an independent Scotland was likely to receive an ‘A’ rating, lower than the UK’s current rating. However the agency said that over time it could receive a higher rating once it “addressed fiscal challenges and investors gained more confidence in its institutions”. In contrast to some other ratings agencies, Moody’s said Scottish independence would have little impact on the credit rating for the rest of the UK.47

Aberdeen Asset Management

On 6 May Aberdeen Asset Management, one of Scotland’s biggest companies, said it would not move its headquarters in the event of Scottish independence and that the company would remain neutral in the debate.48

JCB

On 12 May JCB boss Graeme Macdonald warned that the company’s continued success could be threatened by Scottish independence. He said, “‘I think it would be detrimental to business and to our business. There’s just no good argument for it,’ he said, adding the vote would be a ‘close call’.”49

Baillie Gifford

On 12 May investment management firm Baillie Gifford said it would stay in Edinburgh whatever happens in the independence referendum.50

Association of Corporate Treasurers

On 16 May the Association of Corporate Treasurers held their annual conference in Glasgow. Many of the delegates told the conference it was too early to make plans for an independent Scotland and that contingency plans weren’t yet in place.51

Deutsche Bank
On 13 May Deutsche Bank published a report on the financial implications of independence in which it called for governments to work to ensure a "financially viable" Scotland if voters back independence. The report speculated there could be "capital flight" to the remaining UK but it said that successful independence negotiations would be "in the interests of both countries".52
Lloyd’s Bank
On 15 May Lloyd’s Bank warned that the consequences of Scottish independence are largely unknown, saying the bank has no plan for what would happen if the Scottish people vote to secede. Lord Blackwell, the bank’s new chairman, said that “there are clearly some uncertainties in terms of what a vote for independence would mean” and that it is “impossible to speculate how compliance, regulation and governance would work”. When questioned about Lloyds’ contingency planning in the event of a “yes” vote, Lord Blackwell said the bank does not have a strategy for what it would do. However, he said the situation was a potential “risk” for financial institutions.53

Institute of Chartered Accountants Scotland

On 20 May the Institute of Chartered Accountants Scotland (ICAS) said more detail was needed on how taxes would be raised after a "Yes" vote, adding that a new system could cost over £750m.54 Their report entitled ‘Scotland’s Future: Taxes Explained’55 said the Scottish Government’s White Paper contained “very little detail on tax” and questioned its claim that set-up and running costs for a new tax system would be "a small proportion of an independent Scotland's total budget".56

Confederation of British Industries (CBI)

On 1 May the Electoral Commission nullified the CBI’s registration as a campaigner against Scottish independence. The commission said "the only reason" it had removed the CBI from its register was because the business body had not ensured that the person who signed its application was authorised to do so. In a statement the CBI said they were a politically independent and impartial body.57 Following this the BBC said it was no longer necessary for it to suspend its membership of the CBI, but added that it would instead transfer membership to its commercial business, BBC Worldwide.58

On 21 May CBI President Sir Mike Rake told guests at the CBI annual dinner that Scottish independence was “the foremost issue for businesses” and that the case had not been made than an independent Scotland would be better for the economy.59

Barclays

On 27 May Barclays told its investors an independent Scotland would be twice as likely to adopt its own currency as continue using the pound. The bank estimated there was a 60% chance of Scotland being forced to start its own currency despite Alex Salmond’s insistence the remainder of the UK would drop its opposition to sharing the pound after a Yes vote in the referendum. Barclays said there would only be a 30% chance of Scotland keeping the pound, either in a eurozone-style currency union as Salmond proposes, or informally without the UK’s agreement. The analysis warned the First Minister’s planned currency union could be “unsustainable” during economic shocks thanks to the vast disparity in size between a separate Scotland and the remainder of the UK. Barclays also said it would be difficult to place oil tax revenues into a special fund because North Sea production is in “steep decline” and Scotland has a large deficit.60

B&Q

On 30 May the BBC reported that Sir Ian Cheshire, Chief Executive of Kingfisher, the company which owns B&Q, said that uncertainties around currency and EU membership in an independent Scotland would put "everything into hibernation”; however he said the company would trade in Scotland regardless of the result of the referendum. Cheshire, who employs 2,600 people in Scotland in B&Q stores and another 400 in its Screwfix shops, said the "trading environment" of an independent Scotland would influence his company's approach and added that plans for 23 new Screwfix shops had already been put on hold. He said, “Because Scotland is such an important part of B&Q, there's no way we're going to let it go, but it would be more complicated, probably more costly and less likely to attract investment, given we could invest in 11 other countries around the world."61
BAE
On 30 May the Telegraph reported that BAE Systems boss Ian King had written an internal blog post for employees which highlighted the impact a breakup of the union could have on employee pensions, particularly the EU requirement for cross-border pension schemes to be fully funded. The blog also reiterated BAE’s position on independence; namely that independence would take away certainty and stability.62
Diego
On 29 May Diego Chief Executive Ivan Menezes said that although the decision about independence was for "the people of Scotland to make," it was "extremely important" for Diageo—and the Scotch whisky industry—to remain part of the European Union so it could benefit from "free-trade agreements around the world."63
Trade unions

Educational Institute for Scotland

On 9 May teachers’ union the Educational Institute for Scotland (EIS) launched their manifesto ahead of the Scottish independence referendum. The EIS is not backing either side in the debate and the manifesto challenges both the yes and no campaigns to set out their support for education in Scotland in the future. However it is noteworthy that in the manifesto the EIS says it would oppose any attempt to introduce fees for Scottish universities.64

CWU

This month the CWU received responses from a number of businesses it wrote to asking for their position on Scottish independence:

Royal Mail’s Chairman said Scotland’s future was a matter for the Scottish electorate and that the Board believes it would not be helpful for the company to intervene with any corporate views at this time. He said it would be for Parliament to decide how the Universal Service is defined following the result of the referendum and that it would then be for the company to determine how it will response to the circumstances that arise.
Capita’s Chairman said it planned to grow its existing 5,000 strong workforce in Scotland by another 2,000 over the next 2 years irrespective of the result of the referendum unless, as in any region, they encounter any future insurmountable barriers to doing business.
Post Office Limited did not think it would be appropriate to comment, not least because the Post Office is wholly owned by the UK government.
BT’s Chairman said their Board had discussed the referendum and were of the view that the company should remain neutral in the debate. However he said the company supports the economic analysis of the CBI on the potential risks and uncertainties that would arise for the Scottish economy in the event of a vote for independence and that BT was considering whether they might support a joint CBI or sectoral letter about the choices facing Scotland.


Other sources

Young voter registration

On 1 May it was reported that 90,000 people aged 16 and 17 had registered to vote in the independence referendum, representing about 80% of the Scottish population in this age band.65

Lord Trimble

On 2 May Lord former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Trimble told the Daily Politics show that Scottish independence could cause division in Northern Ireland.66

Royal United Services Institute (Rusi)

On 6 May Professor Malcolm Chambers, Research Director of Rusi, said that an independent Scotland might be forced to postpone banning nuclear weapons from its territory in exchange for an easier passage into Nato and the European Union. He also praised the SNP’s blueprint for defence after independence as being reasonable and said the plans set out important principles on how it could work.67
However on 14 May Rusi also warned an independent Scotland would be a “soft underbelly”, providing a haven for terrorists and organised criminals wanting to target Britain. It said Salmond’s plan to replace the protection given by MI5, MI6 and GCHQ with a new Scottish Security and Intelligence Agency raised serious concerns and would leave the nation with “considerable blind spots”. It said national security would be “compromised” as a result and Scottish failure to establish a “credible” intelligence agency would give hostile agents and criminals a route into the UK.68
Core Cities Group

On 8 May the Core Cities Group of eight major local authorities (Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham and Sheffield) intervened in the Scottish independence debate to insist that devolving more economic powers to cities is a “more radical constitutional agenda than establishing a border at Carlisle.”69

Referendum voting details announced

On 7 May it was reported that the chief counting officer for the referendum had instructed Scotland’s 32 councils to send out polling cards for the referendum on 14 and 15 August. Postal ballots will be sent between the 26th and 28th of the month. The BBC reported that because a high turnout is expected, the chief counting officer wants councils to print 120% of the required ballots for both postal voters and those who vote in person at polling stations, in case any papers get lost or damaged.
To minimise delays, councils are also being directed to appoint one polling clerk for every 800 voters eligible to cast their vote in person at the polling stations. They must also have additional staff available to move between polling stations to help manage peaks and troughs during the day. Other directions include an instruction that ballot papers must be white, with one Official Mark for the whole of Scotland carried on all ballot papers. The front of the ballot paper will bear this official security mark, while the back will carry a unique identifying number and the name of the relevant council area.
The chief counting officer also confirmed that the count will take place overnight on Thursday 18 September and start as "soon as reasonably practicable" after the poll closes at 22:00. In addition, she directed that local authorities who adopt the "mini-count" method may move to the count stage before the verification process of all votes cast has finished. This will help councils, especially in rural areas, where there is likely to be a long delay between the arrival of the first and last ballot box at the local count centre.70
NIESR
On 8 May the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) published a report in which it argued that a currency union between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK would be likely to result in "dollarisation" because monetary union between countries of differing size was unlikely to be sustainable.71 The report argued that when there is a monetary union between two different-sized nations, there is no incentive for the larger country to impose fiscal constraints on the smaller country. Researchers concluded:
"Scotland would have at most one representative on the Monetary Policy Committee, compared to the rest of the UK having eight. It follows that the rest of the UK would dominate every decision and Scotland would have no effective influence on policy. Therefore, the Scottish government's fiscal or borrowing decisions could not directly influence monetary policy in the sterling area, which removes the rationale for borrowing constraints on an independent Scotland."
Proposals for a banking union would also be unlikely to work in the long-term, researchers said:
"In the event of a banking crisis south of the border, the size of a potential fiscal transfer from Scotland to the rest of the UK might be so large as to outweigh the benefits from remaining in the banking union. An independent Scotland would therefore have no incentive to participate."
It concluded that even if a monetary union were agreed in principle, without fiscal constraints or a banking union this would resemble "de facto dollarisation", in which an independent Scotland would unilaterally adopt sterling without agreeing to a formal union.72
Scottish Secular Society
On 9 May it was reported that the Scottish Secular Society had come out in support of independence, arguing that the British state gives unfair protection to certain forms of Christianity.73
Free Church of Scotland
On 9 May a former Free Church of Scotland moderator Rev John Ross published a paper arguing that Christians cannot vote in favour of independence in good conscience because it would lead to a secular state. However other figures in the church have argued that the Nationalists’ reassurances should be taken at “face value” and voters face a choice between a secular Scotland and a secular Britain. The church will not tell its ministers and members how to vote in September’s referendum but commissioned a report for this month’s General Assembly in Edinburgh, with two leading figures arguing for independence and two for the Union.74

University students from abroad
On 12 May a survey carried out by Chinese students at four Scottish universities: Glasgow, Strathclyde, Edinburgh and Glasgow Caledonian, found that of the 200 overseas students surveyed 46% of non-EU nationals said they would be less likely to choose a university in an independent Scotland because they wanted a British degree. More than a third feared the reputation of a Scottish degree would decline.75
Colin Munro

On 15 May former OECD diplomat Colin Murno told the Guardian that despite Minister’s protestations "tough but sensible" negotiations would be held on forming a currency union in the event of a vote for independence. He criticised the "clumsiness" of the pro-union campaign and said it was wrong for the UK government to be "threatening people they would be cut loose".76

Chatham House Journal

On 22 May the journal of the think-tank Chatham House published an article by Professor Andrew Dornan in which he said scrapping Trident after independence could accelerate the shift of power from West to East and see the UK ejected from the United Nations Security Council. He said ending the UK's nuclear capability was a "far greater" issue than the SNP suggests and would have geopolitical impacts that would last for years.

He also said Scottish independence would put the Conservatives in Number 10 "in perpetuity" and see Europe Union members launch fresh attempts to claw back Britain's rebate. He said it was "inevitable" that some defence issues would remain unresolved after the SNP's 18-month proposed negotiation period following a Yes vote because that timescale is "incredibly short”. He said Scotland's airspace would also be unprotected after independence because the dozen fighter jets pledged in the White Paper are barely half what is currently needed to provide that service.77

Medical research funding

On 23 May professors from all five of Scotland's medical schools expressed grave concerns that independence could jeopardise research funding in an open letter. The claims in the letter were rejected by the group ‘Academics for Yes’.78

Glasgow University research on Scotland’s wealth

On 30 May a report by Glasgow University economists claimed that the Scottish Government had overestimated Scotland’s wealth by almost £3,000 per head. The researchers used Gross National Income (GNI) to determine that Scotland’s wealth put it 20th out of the 34 OECD nations; however the Scottish Government uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to put the country at 14th wealthiest in the OECD.79

European Policy Centre

On 29 May the European Policy Centre think-tank published a report80 which said that no EU member state would have "a material interest" in an independent Scotland being outside the European Union but that the situation could cause "a legal nightmare" for other member states.81
Guardian report on foreign ownership in Scotland

On 29 May the Guardian published results of an investigation showing that key industries in Scotland are dominated by foreign and London-based firms. The report found:

Nearly all Scotland’s North Sea oil and gas production is licensed to foreign firms. Only one privately owned Scottish firm, First Oil, can be identified as holding licences. It produces just 6,000 of the total 1m barrels of crude produced every day.
In the financial and banking sector, Scottish-owned institutions earn only £17bn in UK revenues, compared with £34bn earned by UK and overseas firms based in Scotland.
Another 90 banks and finance companies operate in Scotland with no Scottish registered office, including global firms such as Barclays, HSBC and Morgan Stanley, whose earnings flow directly to London or overseas.
More than 70% of Scotland’s total economic output – excluding banking and finance and the public sector – is controlled by non-Scottish-owned firms, according to Scottish government data. The figure for the UK is 36%, according to Office for National Statistics figures.
Of firms in Scotland employing 250 or more people, 83% are owned by non-Scottish companies. By contrast, at UK level, the ONS shows 28% are overseas-owned, and control 47.5% of the income.
Well over 80% of Scotland’s whisky industry – the UK’s largest food and drink export – is owned outside Scotland. Nearly 40% of total output is in the hands of one London-based company, Diageo.
More than 80% of Scottish farmed salmon, Scotland’s most valuable food export, is foreign-owned. About two-thirds of it is controlled from Norway.82
Scottish Finance Secretary John Swinney said the evidence of foreign ownership made the case for independence even stronger by showing that Scotland needed new tax, economic and borrowing powers to keep its wealth within the country and to boost domestic industry.83