union/ballots

[andy.m]

Hi guys, im after some information regarding the union and the ballot that happening. ok, I started at royal mail last year on a 25 hour contract and in february there was a revision, and all walks are now 4 hours, and I was made full time. since then, the whole place has been a joke, at least 2 walks every day being taken out on overtime and a whole lot of other problems, although I wont go into them as ill be here all day.

regarding the union, I dont want to seem silly or stupid but since ive joined royal mail ive had very very little information about who to go to and what happening, as we dont really have a union rep here, infact since ive started our office has had 1 meeting with a union rep and thats been in the space of just over a year. after talking to a few guys in the office and getting some information off them, I decided to join, as all the stories ive been told about RM managers etc. ive been reading this forum for a while now and starting to understand whats going on with modernisation etc and just want to know what happens after we strike, if we strike. thanks

[TrueBlueTerrier]

What happens after we strike:

Various possible outcomes in order of likelihood - of course that supposes we get a strong mandate for action.

1. The RM and Negotiators come to a compromise they think will appease both sides sufficiently enough for both sides to think they have won. The agreement is then put forward to all CWU members in a ballot and we either accept or reject by majority vote. (odds on fav)

2. Royal Mail make no movement at all and the strikes dwindle and eventually die. This situation though is unlikely given that Christmas is approaching.

3. We get everything we want with only a few days out and we go back simple. (not a chance)

4. We all get sacked or locked out - least likely in my humble opinion.


There is probably more that could happen as in 2007 when a few units went "wildcat" but the above scenarios are the most likely ones.

[delboy]

TrueBlueTerrier how many days are we likely to strike and when do you think we will start the strikes?

[TrueBlueTerrier]

TrueBlueTerrier how many days are we likely to strike and when do you think we will start the strikes?

TBH thats a "How long is a piece of string question" the answer depends on so many things.

1. The strength of both the Yes and No Vote - and turnout.
2. How intransignet RM will be.
3. What the CWU negtiators are willing to accept.
4. What positions both sides are willing to give ground on.
5. What their "Line in the sand" issues are.

etc

If the Yes Vote is strong and the turnout is high then we put the CWU in a strong position and the strikes are likely to be short and sharp. If turnout is low and the No vote is quite high say around 30%-40% (unlikely IMHO) then it will be a long drawn out battle of attrition, and the closer the vote the longer the strikes will have to be to get anything.

As to when the strikes will start. My guess again depends on the above. With a strong Yes vote we may either go out on a 1 day national strike very quickly (7 to 14 days after ballot result is announced) to underline the strength of feeling, or if the CWU is very confident we may wait the whole 28 days. After the 1st strike then they will ramp up the pressure and we would probably go out on strikes once or twice a week until agreement. If no agreement is reached then its possible we might see an indefinite strike though I thinks that's unlikely till at least after Christmas.

If its a Yes vote but a weak or not an overwhelming one then I would expect a quick strike so that the Union can gauge the strength of support on the ground, I would then expect intermittent 1 days strikes until we reach an agreement.

[delboy]

OK thanks..