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General Shares discussion

30 Sep 2018, 18:15

Noticed a few comments on various forums about holding shares other than Royal Mail and thought I would start a thread. Shares are notoriously difficult to hold on occasions and need to be views over a longer term. They also need patience, risk and a bit of luck. However to just to give some thoughts here are a few which I think could do well. As always this is not financial advice.

Provident Friends Group: Has been smashed when a new Ops programme went wrong but in these difficult financial times could rise again.

Barrett Development: Been steady for over a year but with a likely Special dividend this year and a regular dividend payout looks a decent buy.

Royal Bank of Scotland: The black sheep but now making money and now the skeletons are gone could do well.

A few oilers who must surely do well with the current oil price:

Genel Energy: High risk as its in Kurdistan but could bring he rewards. Check it out.
BP. Now on a much safer path with a decent dividend.
PMO: Again high risk due to big debt but could prove a winner.

Any thoughts. ??

General Shares discussion

30 Sep 2018, 20:52

Hawkey99 wrote:Noticed a few comments on various forums about holding shares other than Royal Mail and thought I would start a thread. Shares are notoriously difficult to hold on occasions and need to be views over a longer term. They also need patience, risk and a bit of luck. However to just to give some thoughts here are a few which I think could do well. As always this is not financial advice.

Provident Friends Group: Has been smashed when a new Ops programme went wrong but in these difficult financial times could rise again.

Barrett Development: Been steady for over a year but with a likely Special dividend this year and a regular dividend payout looks a decent buy.

Royal Bank of Scotland: The black sheep but now making money and now the skeletons are gone could do well.

A few oilers who must surely do well with the current oil price:

Genel Energy: High risk as its in Kurdistan but could bring he rewards. Check it out.
BP. Now on a much safer path with a decent dividend.
PMO: Again high risk due to big debt but could prove a winner.

Any thoughts. ??

If you want to own US stocks look at Schlumberger.

General Shares discussion

30 Sep 2018, 21:36

Boohoo group plc and kotak midcap India fund for longerterm.

General Shares discussion

30 Sep 2018, 21:52

Any reasons why these .?

General Shares discussion

01 Oct 2018, 05:04

I remember delivering/collecting from BooHoo when they started out in my home town, just a small industrial unit and I'd collect half a york a day from them!

Can't believe how big they've become in such a competitive market as fashion clothing retail.

General Shares discussion

01 Oct 2018, 11:11

Schlumberger, biggest oil services company , a little behind the curve with oil recovery as the big oilers have been cutting back on cappex but now higher oil prices are allowing for more investment, and they'll need to or there's gonna be a supply shortage. Quite low price ATM , I reckon there's 20% there in next 6 months.

General Shares discussion

01 Oct 2018, 18:44

Great thread, would any of you fellas considering lumping on RM shares in the short term, given the direction of travel today and with the glut that will be presumably become available after employee share sales?

Personally think the price will drop a lot further,

General Shares discussion

01 Oct 2018, 19:43

Personally think Royal Mail shares are an absolute bargain. Look at how much GLS are making. In a few years they could easily overtake RMUK in profit terms.

Decent dividend.

What not to like.

Bit concerning about those who are selling in a couple of week !!!

General Shares discussion

01 Oct 2018, 20:16

Hawkey99 wrote:Personally think Royal Mail shares are an absolute bargain. Look at how much GLS are making. In a few years they could easily overtake RMUK in profit terms.

Decent dividend.

What not to like.

Bit concerning about those who are selling in a couple of week !!!

You mentioned the cornerstone that's holding this up now. The dividend, which after today, is nigh on 6% . If they cut that it'd would nosedive. I too, would wait until after after the 15th. Markets are pummeling any reports that aren't outstanding ATM. Even good results are not rewarded. Ryan air profit warning today also took down easyJet which had good results a few weeks ago. Go figure, a rival doing badly would be good for easyJet in my book but what do I know. I think tomorrow could see a bounce up for rmg in the morning but wouldn't be surprised if it was short lived and ended the day in the red.

General Shares discussion

01 Oct 2018, 20:31

I agree Hawkey, RM are not going to go bust, have monopoly on letters, and the reputation and ease of service to maintain and grow parcel market share. Dividends are great, and I think with the continued death of the High Street internet shopping is only going to continue to grow.

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 18:12

Hearing comments about RM going bust within five years time. To be honest it wouldn't surprise me at all to see that happen.

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 19:16

Really? I can't see that, although I do think the job and the service could well change significantly by that time (really sticking my neck out there!)

I'm not sure how or if the USO will be affected by leaving the EU, and if the anticipated de-regulation will stretch to RM's service.

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 20:14

Hawkey99 wrote:Personally think Royal Mail shares are an absolute bargain. Look at how much GLS are making. In a few years they could easily overtake RMUK in profit terms.

Decent dividend.

What not to like.

Bit concerning about those who are selling in a couple of week !!!




Hawkey99

Royal Mail is now ex growth in a very competitive market. Some brokers are now suggesting fair value as 225p-250p. If the divided is cut which is a real possibility then you will be looking at sub 100p.

Profit warnings normally come in three's so things could get even worse very soon for the shares.

Royal Mail share are not a bargain at all.

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 20:17

mickeymacca wrote:I agree Hawkey, RM are not going to go bust, have monopoly on letters, and the reputation and ease of service to maintain and grow parcel market share. Dividends are great, and I think with the continued death of the High Street internet shopping is only going to continue to grow.



Dividend yield is currently approx 6% is good but is under real pressure now.

RM shares are now ex growth in a very competitive market. Profit warnings normally come in 3's. Could easily get a couple more warnings. If divi cut then shares will be sub 100p

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 20:21

mickeymacca wrote:Really? I can't see that, although I do think the job and the service could well change significantly by that time (really sticking my neck out there!)

I'm not sure how or if the USO will be affected by leaving the EU, and if the anticipated de-regulation will stretch to RM's service.


Have to agree with both comments - RM simply too big to fail. What's more likely to happen is someone buying and splitting the business. I have absolutely no doubt that the business will change in the next five years, it simply has to if it is to stay competitive.

Someone above mentioned VR - would take in a heartbeat!

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 20:34

No company is too big to fail.

Awful statement.

Did you not see:

Northern Rock
Polly Peck
Energis
Marconi
Carillion
Toy R Us
Woolworths
Ferranti
MFI
Maxwel Communications
Bradford and Bingley

General Shares discussion

02 Oct 2018, 22:14

dancingqueen wrote:
Hawkey99 wrote:Personally think Royal Mail shares are an absolute bargain. Look at how much GLS are making. In a few years they could easily overtake RMUK in profit terms.

Decent dividend.

What not to like.

Bit concerning about those who are selling in a couple of week !!!




Hawkey99

Royal Mail is now ex growth in a very competitive market. Some brokers are now suggesting fair value as 225p-250p. If the divided is cut which is a real possibility then you will be looking at sub 100p.

Profit warnings normally come in three's so things could get even worse very soon for the shares.

Royal Mail share are not a bargain at all.



Yeh I saw that valuation from Liberum Capital at 250.00 not seen any thing below that. I would be amazed if it went below 100p. And of course the dividend is going to decrease, the CEO has already stated that.
Have you looked at RMs Financial Statements from the last 5 years? What you are stating is unusual given the information provided within them.

From what I understand the profit warning is a readjustment of the forecast for this financial year, and is still expected to reach last years figure or just below, and that is based on the poor performance of letters from the year to date, RMs profits are not driven by letters. I don't really see the need to panic about RMs viability to operate as a business, and not really sure where you are coming from, it does appear you may be a little bit emotionally influenced by some of your posts. Most posters on here predicted a drop around this time (albeit perhaps not quite as dramatic) if they we have a poor xmas, I might well be eating my words!

I think the term is tree shaking....

General Shares discussion

03 Oct 2018, 04:50

Where has the CEO stated that the divi is going to decrease? Can you provide a link to it please.

General Shares discussion

03 Oct 2018, 08:43

dancingqueen wrote:No company is too big to fail.

Awful statement.

Did you not see:

Northern Rock
Polly Peck
Energis
Marconi
Carillion
Toy R Us
Woolworths
Ferranti
MFI
Maxwel Communications
Bradford and Bingley


The huge difference with all those and Royal Mail is there is actually no competition in the letters market and Royal Mail actually have the lions share of the parcel market. They made £500m profit, have you actually seen the profits of other delivery companies. They are holding on by a shoe string

General Shares discussion

03 Oct 2018, 15:58

wacko74 wrote:Where has the CEO stated that the divi is going to decrease? Can you provide a link to it please.


I meant by the nature of the statement, (which is 2 threads up). I think div announcement date for mid-year results is mid-November.

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